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An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of Covid-19 NPIs in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Adolfo Rubinstein
  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati
  • Alejandro López Osornio
  • Federico Filippini
  • Adrian Santoro
  • Cintia Cejas
  • Ariel Bardach
  • Alfredo Palacios
  • Fernando Argento
  • Jamile Balivian
  • Federico Augustovski
  • Andrés Pichón Riviere

Abstract

We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death-curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Adolfo Rubinstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alejandro López Osornio & Federico Filippini & Adrian Santoro & Cintia Cejas & Ariel Bardach & Alfredo Palacios & Fernando Argento & Jamile Balivian & Federic, 2022. "An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of Covid-19 NPIs in Argentina," CID Working Papers 421, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:421
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    File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2022-11-cid-wp-421-epi-econ-model.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Patricio Goldstein & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown Fatigue: The Diminishing Effects of Quarantines on the Spread of COVID-19," CID Working Papers 391, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2021_01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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    Keywords

    COVID-19; Argentina;

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