Can only poorer European countries afford large carnivores?

Background: One of the classic approaches in environmental economics is the environmental Kuznets curve, which predicts that when a national economy grows from low to medium levels, threats to biodiversity conservation increase, but they decrease when the economy moves from medium to high. We evaluated this approach by examining how population densities of the brown bear (Ursus arctos), gray wolf (Canis lupus), and Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) were related to the national economy in 24 European countries. Methodology/Principal findings: We used forest proportions, the existence of a compensation system, and country group (former socialist countries, Nordic countries, other countries) as covariates in a linear model with the first- and the second-order polynomial terms of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Country group was treated as a random factor, but remained insignificant and was ignored. All models concerning brown bear and wolf provided evidence that population densities decreased with increasing GDP, but densities of lynx were virtually independent of GDP. Models for the wolf explained >80% of the variation in densities, without a difference between the models with all independent variables and the model with only GDP. For the bear, the model with GDP alone accounted for 10%, and all three variables 33%, of the variation in densities. Conclusions: Wolves exhibit a higher capacity for dispersal and reproduction than bear or lynx, but still exists at the lowest densities in wealthy European countries. We are aware that several other factors, not available for our models, influenced large carnivore densities. Based on the pronounced differences among large carnivore species in their countrywide relationships between densities and GDP, and a strikingly high relationship for the gray wolf, we suggest that our results reflected differences in political history and public acceptance of these species among countries. The compensation paid for the damages caused by the carnivores is not a key to higher carnivore densities, but might be necessity for the presence of large carnivores to be accepted in countries with high GDP.