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Climate Change and the Macroeconomic Structure in Pre-Industrial Europe: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

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  • Qing Pei
  • David D Zhang
  • Guodong Li
  • Harry F Lee

Abstract

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60–80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15–35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.

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  • Qing Pei & David D Zhang & Guodong Li & Harry F Lee, 2015. "Climate Change and the Macroeconomic Structure in Pre-Industrial Europe: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0126480
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0126480
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    2. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    3. Qing Pei & David D. Zhang & Harry F. Lee & Guodong Li, 2016. "Crop Management as an Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Early Modern Era: A Comparative Study of Eastern and Western Europe," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Olivier DAMETTE & Qing PEI, 2020. "Changement climatique et migrations : un nouveau regard à travers les migrations nomades dans la Chine historique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 17-30.
    5. Pei, Qing & Zhang, David D. & Li, Guodong & Winterhalder, Bruce & Lee, Harry F., 2015. "Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 136, pages 73-80.
    6. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Andrea Seim & Heli Huhtamaa, 2021. "Climate and society in European history," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.

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