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Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries

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  • Naeem Muhammad

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi University Campus, Karachi.)

  • Abdul Rasheed

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi University, Karachi.)

Abstract

The issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not has received considerable attention after the East Asian crisis. During the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both currency and stock markets. If stock prices and exchange rates are related and the causation runs from exchange rates to stock prices, then the crisis in the stock markets can be prevented by controlling the exchange rates. Moreover, developing countries can exploit such a link to attract/stimulate foreign portfolio investment in their own countries. Similarly, if the causation runs from stock prices to exchange rates then authorities can focus on domestic economic policies to stabilise the stock market. If the two markets/prices are related then investors can use this information to predict the behaviour of one market using the information on other market.1 Most of the empirical literature that has examined the stock prices-exchange rate relationship has focused on examining this relationship for the developed countries with very little attention on the developing countries. The results of these studies are, however, inconclusive. Some studies have found a significant positive relationship between stock prices and exchange rates [for instance Smith (1992); Solnik (1987) and Aggarwal (1981)] while others have reported a significant negative relationship between the two [e.g., Soenen and Hennigar (1998)]. On the other hand, there are some studies that have found very weak or no association between stock prices and exchange rates [for instance, Franck and Young (1972); Bartov and Bodnor (1994)]. On the issue of causation, the evidence is also mixed. Some studies [for instance, Abdalla and Murinde (1997)] have found causation runs from exchange rates to stock prices while other reported a reverse causation [e.g., Ajayi and

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 41 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 535-550

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:41:y:2002:i:4:p:535-550

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  9. Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-49, March.
  10. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  11. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
  12. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
  13. Ajayi, Richard A & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, Summer.
  14. Li Lian Ong & H. Y. Izan, 1999. "Stocks and currencies: are they related?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 523-532.
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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Stavarek, 2004. "Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States," Finance 0406006, EconWPA.
  2. Kumar, Sundaram, 2009. "Investigating causal relationship between stock return with respect to exchange rate and FII: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 15793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Rashid, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange rates or stock prices, what causes what: A firm level empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 27209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
  5. Rashid, Abdul, 2008. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Performance: Testing for Dynamic Linkages with a Known Structural Break," MPRA Paper 26937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Jamela Hoveni, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers between the Equity Market and Foreign Exchange Market in South Africa," Working Papers 252, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  7. Malik, Saif Ullah, 2014. "Determinants of Currency Depreciation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 54734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Mevlud Islami & Paul Welfens, 2013. "Financial market integration, stock markets and exchange rate dynamics in Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 47-79, March.
  9. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Zhang, Xu, 2010. "Causal Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2010-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  10. Daniel Stavárek, 2005. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States: Evidence on their Mutual Interactions (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(3-4), pages 141-161, March.
  11. Stavarek, Daniel, 2004. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions," MPRA Paper 7297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Manish Kumar, 2009. "A Bivariate Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2884-2895.
  13. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
  14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 30970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2011.
  15. Bellalah, Mondher & Masood, Omar & Thapa, Priya Darshini Pun & Levyne, Olivier & Triki, Rabeb, 2012. "Economic forces and stock exchange prices: pre and post impacts of global financial recession of 2008," MPRA Paper 50942, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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