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Covid-19 and high-yield emerging market bonds: insights for liquidity risk management

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  • Mariya Gubareva

    (Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa
    Rua Miguel Lupi)

Abstract

Around the apogee of the pandemic crisis in late March 2020, trading liquidity has evaporated out of high-yield (HY) bond markets across developing states. Concerned about this phenomenon, we assess emerging market (EM) debt liquidity as a combination of three metrics: (i) bid–ask spreads; (ii) relative liquidity score incorporating market depth, trading volumes, and time needed to liquidate an asset; and (iii) round-trip transaction costs—evidencing that all have worsened by the end of the first quarter of 2020. We complement our analysis by tracking the dynamics of the option-adjusted spreads of the EM HY bonds and document that the recovery trends of the credit and liquidity components in bonds spreads have decoupled in the aftermath of the Covid-triggered global meltdown. We evidence relevant differences in bond liquidity between chosen countries, representative of geopolitical regions. All the considered liquidity measures provide a coherent picture of the pandemic impact and allow for insights regarding the recovery from the crisis turmoil and the risk management of the EM HY bond portfolios throughout a systemic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariya Gubareva, 2021. "Covid-19 and high-yield emerging market bonds: insights for liquidity risk management," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 193-212, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:23:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1057_s41283-021-00074-7
    DOI: 10.1057/s41283-021-00074-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Imdade Chitou & Gilles Dufrénot & Julien Esposito, 2021. "Linking Covid-19 epidemic and emerging market OAS: Evidence using dynamic copulas and Pareto distributions," Working Papers halshs-03297198, HAL.
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Manel, Youssef & Riaz, Yasir & Gubareva, Mariya, 2021. "Return and volatility transmission between emerging markets and US debt throughout the pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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