IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v62y2011i6d10.1057_jors.2010.80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survival analysis for technology credit scoring adjusting total perception

Author

Listed:
  • T H Moon

    (Yonsei University)

  • S Y Sohn

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

In the area of technology financing, the scorecard model is one of the most popular tools used to help organizations decide whether or not to grant loans to applicant firms. However, the scorecards are often filled-in based on the evaluator’s total perception rather than the individual attribute scores of which the scorecards are composed. Misleading results may occur when reversely scored individual attributes that are based on the total perception are used in the default prediction model. This paper proposes a survival model that takes into account not only the time to default but also the total perception scoring phenomenon. This proposed approach is expected to contribute to decision-making in various areas of technology, such as R&D investments, alliances, transfers, and loans.

Suggested Citation

  • T H Moon & S Y Sohn, 2011. "Survival analysis for technology credit scoring adjusting total perception," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1159-1168, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:6:d:10.1057_jors.2010.80
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.80
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2010.80
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2010.80?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T H Moon & S Y Sohn, 2010. "Technology credit scoring model considering both SME characteristics and economic conditions: The Korean case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(4), pages 666-675, April.
    2. Fuller-Love, N. & Rhys, H. & Tippett, M., 1995. "Harmonic analysis, time series variations and the distributional properties of financial ratios," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 419-427, August.
    3. Hanson, Samuel & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "Confidence intervals for probabilities of default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2281-2301, August.
    4. Stein, Roger M., 2005. "The relationship between default prediction and lending profits: Integrating ROC analysis and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1213-1236, May.
    5. Arthur Hsu & Ronald T. Wilcox, 2000. "Stochastic Prediction in Multinomial Logit Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1137-1144, August.
    6. B Baesens & T Van Gestel & M Stepanova & D Van den Poel & J Vanthienen, 2005. "Neural network survival analysis for personal loan data," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(9), pages 1089-1098, September.
    7. Chen, E. Jack & Kelton, W. David, 2006. "Quantile and tolerance-interval estimation in simulation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 520-540, January.
    8. Noreen, E, 1988. "An Empirical-Comparison Of Probit And Ols Regression Hypothesis Tests," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 119-133.
    9. D J Hand & M G Kelly, 2001. "Lookahead scorecards for new fixed term credit products," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 52(9), pages 989-996, September.
    10. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
    11. Moon, Tae Hee & Sohn, So Young, 2008. "Technology scoring model for reflecting evaluator's perception within confidence limits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 981-989, February.
    12. Stylianos Z. Xanthopoulos & Christos T. Nakas, 2007. "A generalized ROC approach for the validation of credit rating systems and scorecards," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(5), pages 481-488, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Won Sang Lee & So Young Sohn, 2017. "Identifying Emerging Trends of Financial Business Method Patents," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Bo Kyeong Lee & So Young Sohn, 2017. "A Credit Scoring Model for SMEs Based on Accounting Ethics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Ju, Yonghan & Jeon, Song Yi & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Behavioral technology credit scoring model with time-dependent covariates for stress test," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 910-919.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moon, Tae Hee & Sohn, So Young, 2008. "Technology scoring model for reflecting evaluator's perception within confidence limits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 981-989, February.
    2. Bo Kyeong Lee & So Young Sohn, 2017. "A Credit Scoring Model for SMEs Based on Accounting Ethics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Justin A. Sirignano & Gerry Tsoukalas & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Large-Scale Loan Portfolio Selection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1239-1255, December.
    4. Barniv, Ran & Mehrez, Abraham & Kline, Douglas M., 2000. "Confidence intervals for controlling the probability of bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 555-565, October.
    5. Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2017. "Technology Credit Scoring Based on a Quantification Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Janet Mitchell & Patrick Van Roy, 2007. "Failure prediction models : performance, disagreements, and internal rating systems," Working Paper Research 123, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2015. "Stress test for a technology credit guarantee fund based on survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 463-475, March.
    8. Ju, Yong Han & Sohn, So Young, 2014. "Updating a credit-scoring model based on new attributes without realization of actual data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 119-126.
    9. So Sohn & Yoon Kim, 2013. "Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 931-943, December.
    10. Justin Sirignano & Kay Giesecke, 2019. "Risk Analysis for Large Pools of Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 107-121, January.
    11. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    13. Barro, Diana & Basso, Antonella, 2010. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 459-468, September.
    14. Thomas J. Steenburgh & Andrew Ainslie & Peder Hans Engebretson, 2003. "Massively Categorical Variables: Revealing the Information in Zip Codes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 40-57, August.
    15. R T Stewart, 2011. "A profit-based scoring system in consumer credit: making acquisition decisions for credit cards," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1719-1725, September.
    16. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean‐Guy Simonato, 2010. "Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 707-731, June.
    17. Coolen-Maturi, Tahani & Elkhafifi, Faiza F. & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2014. "Three-group ROC analysis: A nonparametric predictive approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 69-81.
    18. T H Moon & Y Kim & S Y Sohn, 2011. "Technology credit rating system for funding SMEs," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(4), pages 608-615, April.
    19. Yuanxin Liu & FengYun Li & Xinhua Yu & Jiahai Yuan & Dong Zhou, 2018. "Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    20. Agata Gurzawska & Markus Mäkinen & Philip Brey, 2017. "Implementation of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) Practices in Industry: Providing the Right Incentives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-26, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:6:d:10.1057_jors.2010.80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.