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The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons

Author

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  • R Bachan

    (University of Brighton)

  • B Reilly

    (University of Sussex)

  • R Witt

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model separate hazard rates for club managers for the 2001/2, 2002/3 and 2003/4 seasons. On average over the three seasons, approximately one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club. We model the hazard using a standard logistic model exploiting information on the spell at risk rather than the individual. The role of neglected heterogeneity is also examined using random and fixed effects logistic models within a discrete-time setting. League position at the start of the spell at risk is found to be the most important determinant of a manager's involuntary exit. A variety of individual specific human capital and other covariates are found to be unimportant in determining the hazard and no role for unobservable heterogeneity as captured by random effects is detected.

Suggested Citation

  • R Bachan & B Reilly & R Witt, 2008. "The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(7), pages 884-891, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:59:y:2008:i:7:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602408
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602408
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    Cited by:

    1. van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin, 2014. "In-season head-coach dismissals and the performance of professional football teams," CEPR Discussion Papers 10191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Stefano D'Addona & Axel Kind, 2011. "Forced Manager Turnovers In English Soccer Leagues: A Long-Term Perspective," Working Papers 1011, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2011.
    3. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    4. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    5. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
    6. Janina Kleinknecht & Daniel Würtenberger, 2022. "Information effects of managerial turnover on effort and performance: Evidence from the German Bundesliga," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 791-812, April.
    7. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Lucas M. Besters & Jan C. Ours & Martin A. Tuijl, 2016. "Effectiveness of In-Season Manager Changes in English Premier League Football," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 335-356, September.
    9. Guy Elaad & Artyom Jelnov & Jeffrey Kantor, 2018. "You do not have to succeed, just do not fail: When do soccer coaches get fired?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 269-274, April.
    10. Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
    11. Thomas (T.L.P.R.) Peeters & Stefan Szymanski & Marko Terviö, 2017. "The inefficient advantage of experience in the market for football managers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-116/VII, Tinbergen Institute.

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