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Can VCs Time the Market? An Analysis of Exit Choice for Venture-backed Firms

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  • Eric Ball
  • Hsin Hui Chiu
  • Richard Smith

Abstract

We use a sample of 8,163 venture-backed companies over three decades to test the competing hypotheses that levels and relative shares of IPO (initial public offering) and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) exits are affected by market timing, versus pseudo-market timing that reflects market conditions. We find evidence of pseudo-market timing. Venture-backed issuers react to market or sector runups but do not predict downturns. We find no evidence that firm-specific market timing contributes to IPO or M&A waves. We also find that acquirers turn to acquisition when other opportunities are unattractive, and that the market may be slow to recognize that such opportunities are declining. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Ball & Hsin Hui Chiu & Richard Smith, 2011. "Can VCs Time the Market? An Analysis of Exit Choice for Venture-backed Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3105-3138.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:24:y:2011:i:9:p:3105-3138
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    Cited by:

    1. Cécile Carpentier & Jean-Marc Suret, 2014. "Post-Investment Migration of Canadian Venture Capital-Backed New Technology-Based Firms," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-27, CIRANO.
    2. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    3. Wadhwa, Kavita & Syamala, Sudhakara Reddy, 2019. "Role of market timing and market conditions: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 555-566.
    4. Keiichi Hori & Hiroshi Osano, 2013. "Managerial Incentives and the Role of Advisors in the Continuous-Time Agency Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(10), pages 2620-2647.
    5. Susan Chaplinsky & Swasti Gupta-Mukherjee, 2013. "The Decline in Venture-Backed IPOS: Implications for Capital Recovery," Chapters, in: Mario Levis & Silvio Vismara (ed.), Handbook of Research on IPOs, chapter 2, pages 35-56, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Luis A. Rios, 2021. "On the origin of technological acquisition strategy: The interaction between organizational plasticity and environmental munificence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1299-1325, July.
    7. Song, Kyojik “Roy” & Kim, Inho & Chang, Young K., 2014. "A reverse takeover as an exit strategy of venture capital: Korean evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 182-198.
    8. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    9. Apostolos Dasilas & Chris Grose & Michael A. Talias, 2017. "Investigating the valuation effects of reverse takeovers: evidence from Europe," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 973-1004, November.
    10. Signori, Andrea & Vismara, Silvio, 2018. "M&A synergies and trends in IPOs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 141-153.
    11. Michala, Dimitra, 2019. "Are private equity backed initial public offerings any different? Timing, information asymmetry and post-IPO survival," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 31-47.
    12. Chin-Wei Lin & Cheng-Shu Kao & Charles S. Chien, 2020. "The Evaluation of Venture Capital in the Biotech Investment of Taiwan Rice-Bran Polysaccharide," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-8.
    13. Nguyen, Giang & Vo, Vinh, 2021. "Asset liquidity and venture capital investment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Josh Lerner & Amit Seru, 2017. "The Use and Misuse of Patent Data: Issues for Corporate Finance and Beyond," NBER Working Papers 24053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jeppsson, Hans, 2018. "Initial public offerings, subscription precommitments and venture capital participation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 650-668.
    16. Boucher, Carène & Kooli, Maher, 2022. "Anatomy of money-losing IPOs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Amor, Salma Ben & Kooli, Maher, 2020. "Do M&A exits have the same effect on venture capital reputation than IPO exits?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Aldatmaz, Serdar & Brown, Gregory W., 2020. "Private equity in the global economy: Evidence on industry spillovers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Thomas Chemmanur & Jie (Jack) He & Xiao (Shaun) Ren & Tao Shu, 2020. "The Disappearing IPO Puzzle: New Insights from Proprietary U.S. Census Data on Private Firms," Working Papers 20-20, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    20. Amit Bubna & Sanjiv R. Das & Paul Hanouna, 2020. "The Fast and the Curious: VC Drift," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 69-113, February.
    21. Fu, Xiaoqing Maggie & Harrison, Richard T. & Li, Dongfu Franco, 2022. "Venture capital investment in university spin-offs: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Jenkinson, Tim & Morkoetter, Stefan & Schori, Tobias & Wetzer, Thomas, 2022. "Buy low, sell high? Do private equity fund managers have market timing abilities?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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