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Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short End of the Term Structure?

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  • Hideyuki Takamizawa

Abstract

Nonlinear drift models of the short rate are estimated using data on the short end of the term structure, where the cross-sectional relation is obtained by an analytical approximation. The findings reveal that (i) nonlinear physical drift is not implied unless it is strongly affected by cross-sectional dimensions of the data; (ii) nonlinear risk-neutral drift that allows for fast mean reversion for high rates is desirable to explain and predict observed patterns of yield spreads; and (iii) for higher frequency data from which transitory shocks are removed, (ii) still remains valid although the nonlinearity is somewhat reduced. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2008. "Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short End of the Term Structure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 311-346, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:1:p:311-346
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhm072
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Shulin & Song, Peter X.-K. & Shi, Daimin & Zhou, Qian M., 2012. "Information ratio test for model misspecification on parametric structures in stochastic diffusion models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 3975-3987.
    2. Cerrato, Mario & Lo, Chia Chun & Skindilias, Konstantinos, 2011. "Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Song, Zhaogang, 2011. "A martingale approach for testing diffusion models based on infinitesimal operator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 189-212, June.
    4. Mario Cerrato & Chia Chun Lo & Konstantinos Skindilias, 2011. "Adaptive continuous time Markov chain approximation model to general jump-diffusions," Working Papers 2011_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2010. "Mean reversion in US and international short rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 286-296, December.
    6. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dotsis, George, 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation of non-affine volatility processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 533-545, June.
    7. Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2007. "A Simple Measure for Examining the Proxy Problem of the Short-Rate," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 341-361, December.
    8. Li, Minqiang, 2013. "An examination of the continuous-time dynamics of international volatility indices amid the recent market turmoil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 128-139.

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