An examination of the continuous-time dynamics of international volatility indices amid the recent market turmoil
AbstractVolatility indices have been designed for many markets as gauges to measure investors' fear of market crash. The recent market turmoil has produced historically high volatility levels. We take a look at the behavior of the VIX and VSTOXX indices by including the recent market turmoil into the data. We estimate various continuous-time models with focus on the structure of the drift and diffusion functions. Two methodologies are utilized: the maximum likelihood estimation, and Aït-Sahalia's parametric specification test. While the results from the parametric specification test advocate strongly for specifying more flexible drift and diffusion functions, nonlinear drift structure often only adds negligible benefit in terms of the likelihood function value. Simulation is carried out to study the finite sample bias and jump omission bias. Our results call for caution against finite sample bias when adopting a particular model or fixing a particular parameter vector.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.
Volume (Year): 22 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin
Volatility indices; Continuous-time dynamics; Maximum likelihood estimation; Parametric specification test;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Li, Minqiang, 2010.
"A damped diffusion framework for financial modeling and closed-form maximum likelihood estimation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 132-157, February.
- Li, Minqiang, 2008. "A Damped Diffusion Framework for Financial Modeling and Closed-form Maximum Likelihood Estimation," MPRA Paper 11185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 1998.
"Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?,"
- Li, Minqiang & Pearson, Neil D. & Poteshman, Allen M., 2004. "Conditional estimation of diffusion processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-66, October.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2006.
"Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short-End of the Term Structure?,"
2006-08, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
- Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2008. "Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short End of the Term Structure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 311-346, January.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Ju, Nengjiu & Ou-Yang, Hui, 2006. "Estimation of continuous-time models with an application to equity volatility dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 227-249, October.
- Dotsis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Skiadopoulos, George, 2007. "An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3584-3603, December.
- Brenner, Menachem & Ou, Ernest Y. & Zhang, Jin E., 2006. "Hedging volatility risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 811-821, March.
- Windcliff, H. & Forsyth, P.A. & Vetzal, K.R., 2006. "Pricing methods and hedging strategies for volatility derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 409-431, February.
- Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
- Grunbichler, Andreas & Longstaff, Francis A., 1996. "Valuing futures and options on volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 985-1001, July.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.