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Should we recalculate the level of spillover effects if the alternative GDP measures for China are correct?

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  • Anna Sznajderska

    (Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

Official statistics show very stable growth rates of production and prices in recent years in China. These statistics are widely criticized. Alternative measures of China’s GDP suggest that China’s growth rates are exaggerated. This indicates that the slowdown of the Chinese economy is even bigger than usually assumed. In this paper, we try to answer the question whether alternative data on Chinese GDP affect the level of spillover effects of the Chinese economy. To this end, we estimate two alternative GVAR models and compare the obtained results. The usage of the alternative GDP series with a lower growth rate than the official GDP growth rate appears to weaken the spillover effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Sznajderska, 2021. "Should we recalculate the level of spillover effects if the alternative GDP measures for China are correct?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(5), pages 437-456.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:52:y:2021:i:5:p:437-456
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    alternative GDP measures; spillover effects; GVAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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