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Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin R. Lee

    (Section of Botany, Carnegie Museum of Natural History
    University of Pittsburgh
    Holden Forests and Gardens
    Boston University)

  • Tara K. Miller

    (Boston University)

  • Christoph Rosche

    (Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg
    German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv))

  • Yong Yang

    (Nanjing Forestry University)

  • J. Mason Heberling

    (Section of Botany, Carnegie Museum of Natural History
    University of Pittsburgh)

  • Sara E. Kuebbing

    (University of Pittsburgh
    Yale University)

  • Richard B. Primack

    (Boston University)

Abstract

Temperate understory plant species are at risk from climate change and anthropogenic threats that include increased deer herbivory, habitat loss, pollinator declines and mismatch, and nutrient pollution. Recent work suggests that spring ephemeral wildflowers may be at additional risk due to phenological mismatch with deciduous canopy trees. The study of this dynamic, commonly referred to as “phenological escape”, and its sensitivity to spring temperature is limited to eastern North America. Here, we use herbarium specimens to show that phenological sensitivity to spring temperature is remarkably conserved for understory wildflowers across North America, Europe, and Asia, but that canopy trees in North America are significantly more sensitive to spring temperature compared to in Asia and Europe. We predict that advancing tree phenology will lead to decreasing spring light windows in North America while spring light windows will be maintained or even increase in Asia and Europe in response to projected climate warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin R. Lee & Tara K. Miller & Christoph Rosche & Yong Yang & J. Mason Heberling & Sara E. Kuebbing & Richard B. Primack, 2022. "Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34936-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34936-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392, April.
    2. A. K. Ettinger & C. J. Chamberlain & I. Morales-Castilla & D. M. Buonaiuto & D. F. B. Flynn & T. Savas & J. A. Samaha & E. M. Wolkovich, 2020. "Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1137-1142, December.
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