IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-32546-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Yilin Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhiyong Jiang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ping Fan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Per G. P. Ericson

    (Swedish Museum of Natural History)

  • Gang Song

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xu Luo

    (Southwest Forestry University)

  • Fumin Lei

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yanhua Qu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Global warming is increasingly exacerbating biodiversity loss. Populations locally adapted to spatially heterogeneous environments may respond differentially to climate change, but this intraspecific variation has only recently been considered when modelling vulnerability under climate change. Here, we incorporate intraspecific variation in genomic offset and ecological niche modelling to estimate climate change-driven vulnerability in two bird species in the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. We found that the cold-tolerant populations show higher genomic offset but risk less challenge for niche suitability decline under future climate than the warm-tolerant populations. Based on a genome-niche index estimated by combining genomic offset and niche suitability change, we identified the populations with the least genome-niche interruption as potential donors for evolutionary rescue, i.e., the populations tolerant to climate change. We evaluated potential rescue routes via a landscape genetic analysis. Overall, we demonstrate that the integration of genomic offset, niche suitability modelling, and landscape connectivity can improve climate change-driven vulnerability assessments and facilitate effective conservation management.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilin Chen & Zhiyong Jiang & Ping Fan & Per G. P. Ericson & Gang Song & Xu Luo & Fumin Lei & Yanhua Qu, 2022. "The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32546-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32546-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32546-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-32546-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veronika N. Laine & Toni I. Gossmann & Kyle M. Schachtschneider & Colin J. Garroway & Ole Madsen & Koen J. F. Verhoeven & Victor de Jager & Hendrik-Jan Megens & Wesley C. Warren & Patrick Minx & Richa, 2016. "Evolutionary signals of selection on cognition from the great tit genome and methylome," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, April.
    2. Marius Roesti & Benjamin Kueng & Dario Moser & Daniel Berner, 2015. "The genomics of ecological vicariance in threespine stickleback fish," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Wendy B. Foden & Bruce E. Young & H. Resit Akçakaya & Raquel A. Garcia & Ary A. Hoffmann & Bruce A. Stein & Chris D. Thomas & Christopher J. Wheatley & David Bickford & Jamie A. Carr & David G. Hole &, 2019. "Climate change vulnerability assessment of species," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), January.
    4. Owens, Hannah L. & Campbell, Lindsay P. & Dornak, L. Lynnette & Saupe, Erin E. & Barve, Narayani & Soberón, Jorge & Ingenloff, Kate & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Hensz, Christopher M. & Myers, Corinne E. &, 2013. "Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 10-18.
    5. Haishan Dang & Yanjun Zhang & Kerong Zhang & Mingxi Jiang & Quanfa Zhang, 2013. "Climate-growth relationships of subalpine fir (Abies fargesii) across the altitudinal range in the Shennongjia Mountains, central China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 903-917, April.
    6. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    7. Marius Roesti & Benjamin Kueng & Dario Moser & Daniel Berner, 2015. "Erratum: The genomics of ecological vicariance in threespine stickleback fish," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-2, December.
    8. Yanting Chen & Zhaoxia Liu & Jacques Régnière & Liette Vasseur & Jian Lin & Shiguo Huang & Fushi Ke & Shaoping Chen & Jianyu Li & Jieling Huang & Geoff M. Gurr & Minsheng You & Shijun You, 2021. "Large-scale genome-wide study reveals climate adaptive variability in a cosmopolitan pest," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Bates, Douglas & Mächler, Martin & Bolker, Ben & Walker, Steve, 2015. "Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i01).
    10. Bénédicte Rhoné & Dimitri Defrance & Cécile Berthouly-Salazar & Cédric Mariac & Philippe Cubry & Marie Couderc & Anaïs Dequincey & Aichatou Assoumanne & Ndjido Ardo Kane & Benjamin Sultan & Adeline Ba, 2020. "Pearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sara J. Germain & James A. Lutz, 2020. "Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 579-598, November.
    2. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    3. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    4. Jaroslav Koleček & Peter Adamík & Jiří Reif, 2020. "Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 177-194, March.
    5. Rui Yin & Wenkuan Qin & Xudong Wang & Dong Xie & Hao Wang & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Martin Schädler & Paul Kardol & Nico Eisenhauer & Biao Zhu, 2023. "Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. JANSSENS, Jochen & DE CORTE, Annelies & SÖRENSEN, Kenneth, 2016. "Water distribution network design optimisation with respect to reliability," Working Papers 2016007, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    7. Raymond Hernandez & Elizabeth A. Pyatak & Cheryl L. P. Vigen & Haomiao Jin & Stefan Schneider & Donna Spruijt-Metz & Shawn C. Roll, 2021. "Understanding Worker Well-Being Relative to High-Workload and Recovery Activities across a Whole Day: Pilot Testing an Ecological Momentary Assessment Technique," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Christopher Hassall & Michael Nisbet & Evan Norcliffe & He Wang, 2024. "The Potential Health Benefits of Urban Tree Planting Suggested through Immersive Environments," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Jie Zhao & Ji Chen & Damien Beillouin & Hans Lambers & Yadong Yang & Pete Smith & Zhaohai Zeng & Jørgen E. Olesen & Huadong Zang, 2022. "Global systematic review with meta-analysis reveals yield advantage of legume-based rotations and its drivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    11. Elisabeth Beckmann & Lukas Olbrich & Joseph Sakshaug, 2024. "Multivariate assessment of interviewer-related errors in a cross-national economic survey (Lukas Olbrich, Elisabeth Beckmann, Joseph W. Sakshaug)," Working Papers 253, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    13. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    14. F J Heather & D Z Childs & A M Darnaude & J L Blanchard, 2018. "Using an integral projection model to assess the effect of temperature on the growth of gilthead seabream Sparus aurata," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, May.
    15. Valentina Krenz & Arjen Alink & Tobias Sommer & Benno Roozendaal & Lars Schwabe, 2023. "Time-dependent memory transformation in hippocampus and neocortex is semantic in nature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Francesca Pilotto & Ingolf Kühn & Rita Adrian & Renate Alber & Audrey Alignier & Christopher Andrews & Jaana Bäck & Luc Barbaro & Deborah Beaumont & Natalie Beenaerts & Sue Benham & David S. Boukal & , 2020. "Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    19. Jack McDonnell & Thomas McKenna & Kathryn A. Yurkonis & Deirdre Hennessy & Rafael Andrade Moral & Caroline Brophy, 2023. "A Mixed Model for Assessing the Effect of Numerous Plant Species Interactions on Grassland Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function Relationships," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Ana Pinto & Tong Yin & Marion Reichenbach & Raghavendra Bhatta & Pradeep Kumar Malik & Eva Schlecht & Sven König, 2020. "Enteric Methane Emissions of Dairy Cattle Considering Breed Composition, Pasture Management, Housing Conditions and Feeding Characteristics along a Rural-Urban Gradient in a Rising Megacity," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32546-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.