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Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

Author

Listed:
  • A. Park Williams

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Craig D. Allen

    (US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station)

  • Alison K. Macalady

    (School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
    Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Daniel Griffin

    (School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
    Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Connie A. Woodhouse

    (School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
    Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • David M. Meko

    (Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Thomas W. Swetnam

    (Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Sara A. Rauscher

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Richard Seager

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Henri D. Grissino-Mayer

    (Laboratory of Tree-Ring Science, The University of Tennessee)

  • Jeffrey S. Dean

    (Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona)

  • Edward R. Cook

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Chandana Gangodagamage

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Michael Cai

    (Space Data Systems, Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Nate G. McDowell

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Abstract

As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Park Williams & Craig D. Allen & Alison K. Macalady & Daniel Griffin & Connie A. Woodhouse & David M. Meko & Thomas W. Swetnam & Sara A. Rauscher & Richard Seager & Henri D. Grissino-Mayer & Jeffre, 2013. "Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 292-297, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:3:d:10.1038_nclimate1693
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1693
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Cosens & Lance Gunderson & Craig Allen & Melinda Harm Benson, 2014. "Identifying Legal, Ecological and Governance Obstacles, and Opportunities for Adapting to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Bagdon, Benjamin A. & Huang, Ching-Hsun & Dewhurst, Stephen & Meador, Andrew Sánchez, 2017. "Climate Change Constrains the Efficiency Frontier When Managing Forests to Reduce Fire Severity and Maximize Carbon Storage," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 201-214.
    3. Ning Chen & Yifei Zhang & Fenghui Yuan & Changchun Song & Mingjie Xu & Qingwei Wang & Guangyou Hao & Tao Bao & Yunjiang Zuo & Jianzhao Liu & Tao Zhang & Yanyu Song & Li Sun & Yuedong Guo & Hao Zhang &, 2023. "Warming-induced vapor pressure deficit suppression of vegetation growth diminished in northern peatlands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Shi, Wenjiao & Liu, Yiting & Shi, Xiaoli, 2018. "Contributions of climate change to the boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China since 1970," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 16-27.
    5. Liu, Qiuyu & Peng, Changhui & Schneider, Robert & Cyr, Dominic & Liu, Zelin & Zhou, Xiaolu & Kneeshaw, Daniel, 2021. "TRIPLEX-Mortality model for simulating drought-induced tree mortality in boreal forests: Model development and evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    6. Jessica Stubenrauch & Beatrice Garske & Felix Ekardt & Katharina Hagemann, 2022. "European Forest Governance: Status Quo and Optimising Options with Regard to the Paris Climate Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-35, April.
    7. Orawan Kumdee & Md. Samim Hossain Molla & Kulwadee Kanavittaya & Jutamas Romkaew & Ed Sarobol & Sutkhet Nakasathien, 2023. "Morpho-Physiological and Biochemical Responses of Maize Hybrids under Recurrent Water Stress at Early Vegetative Stage," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-30, September.
    8. Wu, Yali & Ma, Ying & Niu, Yuan & Song, Xianfang & Yu, Hui & Lan, Wei & Kang, Xiaoqi, 2021. "Warming changed seasonal water uptake patterns of summer maize," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    9. M. D. Petrie & J. B. Bradford & W. K. Lauenroth & D. R. Schlaepfer & C. M. Andrews & D. M. Bell, 2020. "Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2233-2256, December.
    10. Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano & Tim R. McVicar & Diego G. Miralles & Yuting Yang & Miquel Tomas‐Burguera, 2020. "Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
    11. Barkat Rabbi & Zhong-Hua Chen & Subbu Sethuvenkatraman, 2019. "Protected Cropping in Warm Climates: A Review of Humidity Control and Cooling Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-24, July.
    12. Diego Varga & Mariona Roigé & Josep Pintó & Marc Saez, 2019. "Assessing the Spatial Distribution of Biodiversity in a Changing Temperature Pattern: The Case of Catalonia, Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Yangyang Wu & Jinli Yang & Siliang Li & Chunzi Guo & Xiaodong Yang & Yue Xu & Fujun Yue & Haijun Peng & Yinchuan Chen & Lei Gu & Zhenghua Shi & Guangjie Luo, 2023. "NDVI-Based Vegetation Dynamics and Their Responses to Climate Change and Human Activities from 2000 to 2020 in Miaoling Karst Mountain Area, SW China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, June.
    14. Elbeltagi, Ahmed & Srivastava, Aman & Deng, Jinsong & Li, Zhibin & Raza, Ali & Khadke, Leena & Yu, Zhoulu & El-Rawy, Mustafa, 2023. "Forecasting vapor pressure deficit for agricultural water management using machine learning in semi-arid environments," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    15. Kaoru Kakinuma & Aki Yanagawa & Takehiro Sasaki & Mukund Palat Rao & Shinjiro Kanae, 2019. "Socio-ecological Interactions in a Changing Climate: A Review of the Mongolian Pastoral System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    16. Hatten, James R., 2014. "Mapping and monitoring Mount Graham red squirrel habitat with Lidar and Landsat imagery," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 289(C), pages 106-123.
    17. Avery P. Hill & Christopher B. Field, 2021. "Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    19. Alyssa M. Willson & Anna T. Trugman & Jennifer S. Powers & Chris M. Smith-Martin & David Medvigy, 2022. "Climate and hydraulic traits interact to set thresholds for liana viability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Stavros Sakellariou & Marios Spiliotopoulos & Nikolaos Alpanakis & Ioannis Faraslis & Pantelis Sidiropoulos & Georgios A. Tziatzios & George Karoutsos & Nicolas R. Dalezios & Nicholas Dercas, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Drought Assessment Based on Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Vulnerable Agroecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
    21. William M. Hammond & A. Park Williams & John T. Abatzoglou & Henry D. Adams & Tamir Klein & Rosana López & Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero & Henrik Hartmann & David D. Breshears & Craig D. Allen, 2022. "Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    22. Zhang, Yu & Liu, Xiaohong & Jiao, Wenzhe & Zhao, Liangju & Zeng, Xiaomin & Xing, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Lingnan & Hong, Yixue & Lu, Qiangqiang, 2022. "A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    23. King, David A. & Bachelet, Dominique M. & Symstad, Amy J. & Ferschweiler, Ken & Hobbins, Michael, 2015. "Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 297(C), pages 86-97.

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