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Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia

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  • Antonio Spilimbergo

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of fiscal policy since the 1998 crisis, along several dimensions and using a variety of indicators. Russia has progressed tremendously in recent years on public debt sustainability largely because the real interest rates on public debt have been negative and growth has been high. However, the constant oil-price balance shows a progressive worsening starting in 2001 with a modest reversal in 2004. As to optimal fiscal policy in a country endowed with exhaustible resources, analysis of the nonoil fiscal balance shows that Russian fiscal policy has had a mixed record. It has spent part of the windfall before introducing the oil stabilization fund, but has saved most of the oil revenues in the last two years. The standard fiscal impulse shows that budget policy has not contributed to the increase in aggregate demand since 2003. However, the fiscal position was not tight enough to contain the inflationary effect of the exceptional oil windfalls for the economy as a whole.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 25-44

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:6:p:25-44

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: exhaustible resources; fiscal performance; optimal fiscal policy; Russia; unexpected oil windfalls;

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References

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  1. Hong Liang & C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1999. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 99/80, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
  3. H. Takizawa & E. H. Gardner & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 04/141, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.

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