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Flexible substitution patterns in models of mode and time of day choice: new evidence from the UK and the Netherlands

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  • Stephane Hess

    ()

  • John Polak

    ()

  • Andrew Daly

    ()

  • Geoffrey Hyman

    ()

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    Abstract

    Modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many practical transport planning studies and is recognised to hold particular challenges. The importance of congestion and its variation over the day, together with the emergence of time-dependent road user charging as a policy tool, emphasise the need to understand whether and how travellers will change the timing of their journeys. For practical planning studies, analysts face a major issue of relating temporal changes to other behavioural changes that are likely to result from policy or exogenous changes. In particular, the relative sensitivity of time and mode switching has been difficult to resolve. This paper describes a study undertaken to determine the relative sensitivity of mode and time of day choice to changes in travel times and costs and to investigate whether evidence exists of varying magnitudes of unobservable influences in time of day switching. The study draws on data from three related stated preference studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands and uses error components logit models to investigate the patterns of substitution between mode and time of day alternatives. It is concluded that the magnitude of unobserved influences on time switching depends significantly on the magnitudes of the time switches considered. With time periods of the magnitude generally represented in practical modelling, i.e. peak periods of 2–3 hours, time switching is generally more sensitive in these data than mode switching. However, the context of the modelling and the extent to which relevant variables can be measured will strongly influence these results. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Transportation.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 213-238

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:2:p:213-238

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=103007

    Related research

    Keywords: Departure time; Mode choice; Error-components logit; time period;

    References

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    1. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
    2. Arnott, R. & de Palma, A. & Lindsey, R., 1990. "Departure time and route choice for the morning commute," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 209-228, June.
    3. Bhat, Chandra R. & Steed, Jennifer L., 2002. "A continuous-time model of departure time choice for urban shopping trips," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 207-224, March.
    4. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
    5. Wang, James Jixian, 1996. "Timing utility of daily activities and its impact on travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-206, May.
    6. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
    7. Bhat, Chandra R., 1998. "Analysis of travel mode and departure time choice for urban shopping trips," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 361-371, August.
    8. Small, Kenneth A, 1987. "A Discrete Choice Model for Ordered Alternatives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 409-24, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Brey, Raúl & Walker, Joan L., 2011. "Latent temporal preferences: An application to airline travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 880-895, November.
    2. Lemp, Jason D. & Kockelman, Kara M. & Damien, Paul, 2010. "The continuous cross-nested logit model: Formulation and application for departure time choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 646-661, June.
    3. Hess, Stephane & Daly, Andrew & Rohr, Charlene & Hyman, Geoff, 2007. "On the development of time period and mode choice models for use in large scale modelling forecasting systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 802-826, November.
    4. Xie, Litian & Olszewski, Piotr, 2011. "Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic using ERP traffic data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 512-522, July.
    5. Stephane Hess & Denis Bolduc & John Polak, 2010. "Random covariance heterogeneity in discrete choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 391-411, May.
    6. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.
    7. Bhatta, Bharat P. & Larsen, Odd I., 2011. "Errors in variables in multinomial choice modeling: A simulation study applied to a multinomial logit model of travel mode choice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 326-335, March.
    8. Ettema, Dick & Bastin, Fabian & Polak, John & Ashiru, Olu, 2007. "Modelling the joint choice of activity timing and duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 827-841, November.

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