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Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools

Author

Listed:
  • A. Philip Dawid

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Julia Mortera

    (Università Roma Tre)

Abstract

Bradley (Theory Decis 85:5–20, 2018) develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al. (Test 4:263–314, 1995). We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley (2018) that invalidates his main result.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Philip Dawid & Julia Mortera, 2020. "Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 453-456, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:88:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11238-019-09729-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-019-09729-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris H. DeGroot & Julia Mortera, 1991. "Optimal Linear Opinion Pools," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 546-558, May.
    2. A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December.
    3. Richard Bradley, 2018. "Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(1), pages 5-20, July.
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    Keywords

    Expert testimony; Linear opinion pool;

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