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A representation of Keynes's long-term expectation in financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Basili

    (DEPS - Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica - UNISI - Università degli Studi di Siena = University of Siena)

  • Alain Chateauneuf

    (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Giuliano Antonio
  • Giuseppe Scianna

Abstract

This paper advances an intuitive representation of Keynes's notion of long-term expectation. We introduce the epsilon-contamination approach and represent the conventional judgment by the Steiner point of agents' common probability set. We anticipate a change in conventional judgment by updating the Steiner point.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Giuliano Antonio & Giuseppe Scianna, 2023. "A representation of Keynes's long-term expectation in financial markets," Working Papers hal-03999320, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03999320
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03999320
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; multiple priors. JEL classification: D81; Keynes long-term expectation epsilon contamination uncertainty multiple priors. JEL classification: D81; Keynes; long-term expectation; epsilon contamination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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