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Tax structure and the size of government: An empirical analysis of the fiscal illusion and fiscal stress arguments

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  • Walter Misiolek
  • Harold Elder

Abstract

This study attempts to fulfill a number of objectives. One is the (possible) reconciliation of two divergent strains of thought concerning the size of government: fiscal illusion and fiscal stress. In this respect, the results show little evidence of fiscal illusion, but provide support for some of the notions associated with the fiscal stress hypothesis, namely the effects of revenue and income variability on the size of government. Second, we try to provide a more complete specification of the size of government model through the addition of variables measuring the degree of tax exportation and the presence of tax-expenditure limitations. In both cases, the additions prove successful: greater tax exportation significantly increases the level of tax revenues and expenditures; and, and in states where there are statutory limitations on taxes or expenditures, we find lower levels of tax revenues and expenditures. In addition, our findings clearly show that the results one obtains in investigating fiscal illusion are sensitive to the manner in which the model is specified. Considerable work remains to be done in this area. Obviously, it would be desirable to specify the entire system of equations rather than one reduced form equation in the model. Also, broader and more accurate measures of tax system elasticity would perhaps illuminate the issues more effectively. And finally, the incorporation of modelling the size of government into a more inclusive theory of the public choice of revenues, spending, and government structure would be worthwhile. But these are all beyond the scope of this paper and must be deferred for later study. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1988

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Misiolek & Harold Elder, 1988. "Tax structure and the size of government: An empirical analysis of the fiscal illusion and fiscal stress arguments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 233-245, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:57:y:1988:i:3:p:233-245
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00124807
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    3. F. Forte, 1997. "The measurement of 'fiscal burden' on GDP instead than on national net value added produced: a chapter in fiscal illusion," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(202), pages 337-375.
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    5. Brian Dollery & Andrew Worthington, 1999. "Fiscal Illusion at the Local Level: An Empirical Test Using Australian Municipal Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(1), pages 37-48, March.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Mulligan, Casey B, 2003. "Deadweight Costs and the Size of Government," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 293-340, October.
    7. Harold W. Elder, 1992. "Exploring the Tax Revolt: an Analysis of the Effects of State Tax and Expenditure Limitation Laws," Public Finance Review, , vol. 20(1), pages 47-63, January.
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    11. Deborah A. Carroll, 2005. "Are State Governments Prepared for Fiscal Crises? A Look at Revenue Diversification during the 1990s," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(5), pages 603-633, September.
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    14. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1999. "Gerontocracy, retirement, and social security," Economics Working Papers 383, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Ankie Scott-Joseph, 2022. "Debt financing and fiscal illusion: evidence from Caribbean states," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-25, September.
    16. Trang Hoang & Craig S. Maher, 2022. "Fiscal condition, institutional constraints, and public pension contribution: are pension contribution shortfalls fiscal illusion?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 93-124, December.
    17. Musharraf Cyan & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & VIoleta Vulovic, 2013. "Measuring tax effort: Does the estimation approach matter and should effort be linked to expenditure goals?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1308, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    18. David Cantarero & Marta Pascual & Roberto Fernandez & María A. García-Valiñas, 2004. "Local government debt: an application to the Spanish case," ERSA conference papers ersa04p282, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Michael Marlow & David Joulfaian, 1989. "The determinants of off-budget activity of state and local governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 113-123, November.
    20. Mulligan, Casey B. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1999. "Gerontocracy, Retirement, and Social Security," Working Papers 154, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    21. J.S. Darshini & K. Gayithri, 2023. "An Econometric Analysis of Revenue Diversification Among Selected Indian States," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 24(1), pages 41-63, March.
    22. Musharraf Rasool Cyan & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic, 2014. "New approaches to measuring tax effort," Chapters, in: Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), Taxation and Development: The Weakest Link?, chapter 2, pages 27-68, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Taeseop Yoon & Junseop Shim, 2016. "An empirical analysis of the fiscal impacts of changes in tax revenue multiplicity: Focusing on Florida county case," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 21-36, January.
    24. Haug, Peter, 2009. "Shadow Budgets, Fiscal Illusion and Municipal Spending: The Case of Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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