IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v42y2023i1d10.1007_s11113-023-09765-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Ester Lazzari

    (University of Vienna (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna)))

  • Michaela Potančoková

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Tomáš Sobotka

    (Vienna Institute of Demography, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Edith Gray

    (School of Demography, Australian National University)

  • Georgina M. Chambers

    (National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit (NPESU), Centre for Big Data Research in Health and School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasingly influencing the fertility trends of high-income countries characterized by a pattern of delayed childbearing. However, research on the impact of ART on completed fertility is limited and the extent to which delayed births are realized later in life through ART is not well understood. This study uses data from Australian fertility clinics and national birth registries to project the contribution of ART for cohorts of women that have not yet completed their reproductive life and estimate the role played by ART in the fertility ‘recuperation’ process. Assuming that the increasing trends in ART success rates and treatment rates continue, the projection shows that the contribution of ART-conceived births to completed fertility will increase from 2.1% among women born in 1968 to 5.7% among women born in 1986. ART is projected to substantially affect the extent to which childbearing delay will be compensated at older ages, suggesting that its availability may become an important factor in helping women to achieve their reproductive plans later in life.

Suggested Citation

  • Ester Lazzari & Michaela Potančoková & Tomáš Sobotka & Edith Gray & Georgina M. Chambers, 2023. "Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:42:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-023-09765-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kryštof Zeman & Eva Beaujouan & Zuzanna Brzozowska & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(25), pages 651-690.
    2. Naomi Gershoni & Corinne Low, 2021. "Older Yet Fairer: How Extended Reproductive Time Horizons Reshaped Marriage Patterns in Israel," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 198-234, January.
    3. Helmut Rainer & Geethanjali Selvaretnam & David Ulph, 2011. "Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1101-1132, July.
    4. Joelle Abramowitz, 2014. "Turning back the ticking clock: the effect of increased affordability of assisted reproductive technology on women’s marriage timing," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 603-633, April.
    5. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    6. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2013. "New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 31-56, March.
    7. Katherine Tierney, 2022. "The Future of Assisted Reproductive Technology Live Births in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2289-2309, October.
    8. Tomáŝ Sobotka & Martin A. Hansen & Tina Kold Jensen & Anette Tønnes Pedersen & Wolfgang Lutz & Niels Erik Skakkebæk, 2008. "The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility: An Analysis of Danish Data," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 79-101, March.
    9. Joelle Abramowitz, 2017. "Assisted Reproductive Technology and Women’s Timing of Marriage and Childbearing," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 100-117, March.
    10. Ester Lazzari, 2021. "Changing trends between education, childlessness and completed fertility: a cohort analysis of Australian women born in 1952–1971," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 417-441, December.
    11. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    12. Ester Lazzari & Edith Gray & Georgina Chambers, 2021. "The contribution of assisted reproductive technology to fertility rates and parity transition: An analysis of Australian data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(35), pages 1081-1096.
    13. Elizabeth Thomson & Trude Lappegård & Marcia Carlson & Ann Evans & Edith Gray, 2014. "Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia, the United States, Norway, and Sweden," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 485-508, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 16500, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Katherine Tierney, 2022. "The Future of Assisted Reproductive Technology Live Births in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2289-2309, October.
    3. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
    4. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    7. Gershoni, Naomi & Low, Corinne, 2021. "The power of time: The impact of free IVF on Women’s human capital investments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 16-27.
    9. Ka Kin Lam & Bo Wang, 2021. "Robust Non-Parametric Mortality and Fertility Modelling and Forecasting: Gaussian Process Regression Approaches," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Katherine Tierney & Ester Lazzari, 2024. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Medically Assisted Live Birth Rates in the United States in 2020 and 2021," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(1), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Namkee Ahn & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2020. "Analysis of fertility using cohort-specific socio-economic data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 711-733, September.
    13. FLICI, Farid, 2016. "Projection des taux de fécondité de la population algérienne à l’horizon 2050 [Forecasting the age-specific fertility rates of the Algerian population up to 2050]," MPRA Paper 99077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cristina Rueda-Sabater & Pedro Alvarez-Esteban, 2008. "The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1053-1070.
    15. Liat Raz-Yurovich, 2022. "Leisure: Definitions, Trends, and Policy Implications," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 981-1019, June.
    16. Samuel J. Clark, 2019. "A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 1131-1159, June.
    17. Lydia Dutton & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Malgorzata Seklecka, 2020. "The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 533-550, April.
    18. Norkhairunnisa Redzwan & Rozita Ramli, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Joelle Abramowitz & Marcus Dillender, 2017. "Considering the Use of Stock and Flow Outcomes in Empirical Analyses: An Examination of Marriage Data," Working Papers 17-64, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    20. Rueda, Cristina & Rodríguez, Pilar, 2010. "State space models for estimating and forecasting fertility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 712-724, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:42:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-023-09765-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.