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The Impact of Societal Instability on Demographic Behavior (The Case of Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia)

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  • Yuri Frantsuz

    (Sociological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences - a branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science of the Federal Scientific Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Eduard Ponarin

    (National Research University-Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of sociopolitical instability on fertility. We develop a model linking macro-level instability with its perceptions as uncertainty at micro-level and their impact on decision-making and fertility outcomes. This model is based on a modified version of the uncertainty reduction theory. We stipulate that higher fertility rates may reflect people’s effort to reduce uncertainty in the periods of higher instability. We test and partially confirm this model by application of an APC analysis to fertility data from the Soviet and post-Soviet Russia from 1959 through 1998. The model helps to explain some of the sudden short-term fluctuations in fertility during the period of research interest that other social and demographic theories failed to interpret. Our findings lead us to certain suggestions in the way of refinement of the uncertainty reduction theory. Furthermore, our model relates various types, intensities and magnitudes of instabilities to fertility outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuri Frantsuz & Eduard Ponarin, 2020. "The Impact of Societal Instability on Demographic Behavior (The Case of Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia)," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:39:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s11113-020-09595-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-020-09595-7
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