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A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Housing Markets

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  • Rose Neng Lai

    (University of Macau)

  • Robert A. Van Order

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

The recent surge in property values in China has been similar to the surge in the U.S before the crash in 2007. This raises concerns about whether China is destined to have a crash as well. We estimate similar models of property values for the two countries, in order to compare price dynamics side by side. We find little in common between them. In the U.S. the adjustment process appears prone to “bubbles” in the sense of strong momentum, but Chinese prices have been generally mean reverting, without momentum. This suggests that the recent price rise in China has had more to do with scarcity than with irrational exuberance.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose Neng Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2020. "A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 505-547, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:61:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-018-9670-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-018-9670-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Lu Liu & Linda Qiu & Yuanyuan Yang, 2022. "Urban housing prices within a core urban agglomeration in China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-38, November.
    2. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    3. Edward C. H. Tang, 2024. "Does Bubble Still Exist after COVID-19? Evidence from Hong Kong Housing Market," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 28(1), pages 27-46, March.

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