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Real Options: Experimental Evidence

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Author Info
Abdullah Yavas ()
C. Sirmans ()

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Abstract

Empirical testing of the real options theory has been very limited. This is primarily due to various inherent problems with obtaining field data for many components of real options theory. This paper utilizes experimental methodology to generate the data. The advantage of the experimental approach is that it enables the investigator to generate reliable and replicable data in a controlled environment. The results of the experiment indicate that fundamental insights of real options theory are not evident to individual investors. The majority invested too early and thus failed to recognize the benefit of the option to wait. However, when the investors had to compete with others for the right to invest, their bids generally reflected the value of the embedded option. Furthermore, as predicted by the theory, their bids increased with greater uncertainty about future cash flows from the investment. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-005-0992-6
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 27-52
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:31:y:2005:i:1:p:27-52

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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Related research
Keywords: real options; experimental modeling; real estate investment; investment timing;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
  2. A. Steven Holland & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2000. "The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-64. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. McConnell, John J. & Schallheim, James S., 1983. "Valuation of asset leasing contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 237-261, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
  6. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Riddiough, Timothy J., 1997. "The Economic Consequences of Regulatory Taking Risk on Land Value and Development Activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 56-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Capozza, Dennis R & Sick, Gordon A, 1991. "Valuing Long-Term Leases: The Option to Redevelop," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 209-23, June.
  9. David Geltner, 1989. "On the use of the Financial Option Price Model to Value and Explain Vacant Urban Land," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 142-158. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. William C. Wheaton, 1989. "On the use of the Financial Option Price Model to Value and Explain Vacant Urban Land," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 159-160. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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