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COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Bretschger

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Elise Grieg

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Paul J. J. Welfens

    (EIIW/University of Wuppertal)

  • Tian Xiong

    (EIIW/University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

This paper presents empirical results on coronavirus infection and fatality rates from cross-country regressions for OECD economies and a sample of middle- and high-income countries. We include environmental, economic, medical, and policy variables in our analysis to explain the number of corona cases and deaths per million. We find a significant positive impact of local air pollution on infection rates in the whole sample and on fatality rates for OECD countries. Obesity rates have a positive effect on cases and deaths across the different estimation equations. The strategy of aiming to achieve herd immunity has a significant positive effect on infections as well as on death rates. The first affected countries have significantly higher mortality rates, revealing the lack of experience and medical capacity to deal with the pandemic in an initial phase. Postponing – and fighting - the pandemic could save lives in many countries and generate considerable economic benefits. Other medical and policy variables discussed in the public sphere do not show a significant impact in the regression analysis. Our results suggest that improving air quality and fighting obesity helps reduce the negative effects of a coronavirus pandemic significantly. Policy options for fighting a second epidemic wave should take into account the results from this study in order to optimize global epidemic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Bretschger & Elise Grieg & Paul J. J. Welfens & Tian Xiong, 2020. "COVID-19 infections and fatalities developments: empirical evidence for OECD countries and newly industrialized economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 801-847, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:17:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-020-00487-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-020-00487-x
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    2. Melhuish, Neil & Pacheco, Edgar, 2020. "Factsheet: The impact of the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown on adult New Zealanders' experiences of unwanted digital communications," OSF Preprints nqg6a, Center for Open Science.
    3. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hans Philipp Hofmann, 2021. "A Matter of Trust? Political Trust and the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 9121, CESifo.
    4. Kaan Celebi & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Trump: Conclusions from an Impact Evaluation Analysis," EIIW Discussion paper disbei281, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Lukas Cibik & Leon Richvalsky, 2023. "The Economy of EU Member Countries in 2020 from Perspective of Magic Square," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 3-21.
    6. Thomas Gries & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2021. "Testing as an approach to control the Corona epidemic dynamics and avoid lockdowns," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Feng Wang & Xing Ge & Danwen Huang, 2022. "Government Intervention, Human Mobility, and COVID-19: A Causal Pathway Analysis from 121 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
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    9. Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Longmei Zhang, 2021. "The effects of COVID‐19 containment measures on the Asia‐Pacific region," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 469-497, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus pandemic; Fatality rates; Air pollution; OECD countries; Newly industrialized countries; Health systems; Environmental policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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