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On the twin deficits hypothesis and the import intensity in transition countries

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  • Hubert Gabrisch

Abstract

This article aims to explain the increasing deficits in the trade and current account balances of three post-transition countries–Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland–by testing two hypotheses: the twin deficit hypothesis and increasing import intensity of export production. The method uses co-integration and related techniques to test for a long-run causal relationship between the fiscal and external deficits of three post-transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, an import intensity model is tested by applying OLS and GMM. All the results reject the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. Instead, the results demonstrate that specific transition factors such as net capital flows and, probably, a high import intensity of exports affect the trade balance. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

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  • Hubert Gabrisch, 2015. "On the twin deficits hypothesis and the import intensity in transition countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 205-220, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:205-220
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-014-0272-0
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    1. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2016. "Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post-communist countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin deficits; Import intensity; Transition countries; E62; F41; H62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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