IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v23y2017i3d10.1007_s11294-017-9642-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electrification, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the Decline in Investment Expenditure in 1931–1932: Testing the Excess-Capacity Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard C. Beaudreau

    (Université Laval)

Abstract

Beaudreau (1996) argued that the decline in investment expenditure in the early 1930s was the result of two factors, namely the electrification of U.S. manufacturing in the 1910s and 1920s which had resulted in significant excess capacity, and secondly, to the failure of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill in October 1929 to be passed by the Senate, resulting in (i) the Stock Market Crash in October 1929 and (ii) the ensuing precipitous decline in investment expenditure which touched off the Great Depression. In short, the manufacturing sector in the late 1920s found itself with excess capacity, prompting Senator Reed Smoot and the Republican Party to propose another upward revision of the tariff schedule. The failure to deliver on this promise led to the Crash and the ensuing decline in investment expenditure, the cumulative effect of which led to the Great Depression. This paper tests this hypothesis using two-digit industry investment data. As electrification varied considerably across industries it would stand to reason that sectors that electrified the most would have witnessed the largest decreases in investment expenditure (plant and equipment), owing to the presence of excess capacity. The results confirm this hypothesis, leading us to conclude that electrification-based excess capacity may have been an important cause of the downturn in 1930 and 1931.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard C. Beaudreau, 2017. "Electrification, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the Decline in Investment Expenditure in 1931–1932: Testing the Excess-Capacity Hypothesis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 295-308, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:23:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11294-017-9642-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-017-9642-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11294-017-9642-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-017-9642-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
    3. Ferderer, J. Peter & Zalewski, David A., 1994. "Uncertainty as a Propagating Force in The Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 825-849, December.
    4. James Foreman-Peck, 2014. "Great recessions compared," Investigaciones de Historia Económica - Economic History Research (IHE-EHR), Journal of the Spanish Economic History Association, Asociación Española de Historia Económica, vol. 10(02), pages 92-103.
    5. Barry Eichengreen, 2011. "Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies: What We Know, What We Do not, and What We Can Learn from the 1930s," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 383-406, September.
    6. Bernard C. Beaudreau, 2014. "Electrification, Tractorization, and Motorization: Revisiting the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 1039-1071, December.
    7. Committee on Recent Economic Changes, 1929. "Recent Economic Changes in the United States, Volumes 1 and 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number comm29-1, March.
    8. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2006. "Investment and Uncertainty: Precipitating the Great Depression in the United States," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(291), pages 393-412, August.
    9. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    11. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Pensieroso, 2011. "The Great Depression in Belgium from a Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 389-402, Arpil.
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-555, February.
    3. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2017. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Economic Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-002E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    4. Franck Portier, 2008. "Interprétation d'épisodes historiques à l'aide de modèles dynamiques stochastiques d'équilibre général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46.
    5. Gomes, Victor & Teixeira, Arilton & Bugarin, Mirta Sataka & Ellery Jr, Roberto, 2010. "From a Miracle to a Disaster: the Brazilian Economy in the Last 3 Decades," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    6. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2006. "Payment uncertainty, the division of labor, and productivity declines in great depressions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 715-741, October.
    7. Roberto Ellery Jr. & Victor Gomes, 2014. "Fiscal Policy, Supply Shocks and Economic Expansion in Brazil from 2003 to 2007," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 53-75, June.
    8. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2012. "Capital Taxation During the U.S. Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1515-1550.
    9. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    10. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2018. "Macroeconomic Interdependence Between a Stagnant and a Fully Employed Country," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 450-477, December.
    11. Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E.J.M., 2016. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 109-125.
    12. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
    13. Christian A. Belabed, 2016. "Inequality and the New Deal," IMK Working Paper 166-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Luca Pensieroso, 2007. "Real Business Cycle Models Of The Great Depression: A Critical Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 110-142, February.
    15. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    16. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    17. Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2006. "Secular Trends in U.S Saving and Consumption," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 494, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    20. Edward C. Prescott, 2006. "The Transformation of Macroeconomic Policy and Research," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 50(1), pages 3-20, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electrification; Excess capacity; Investment expenditure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N62 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:23:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11294-017-9642-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.