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Active Portfolio Management, Implied Expected Returns, and Analyst Optimism

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  • Olaf Stotz

Abstract

This paper investigates whether implied expected returns based on the approach of CLAUS/THOMAS (2001) can be implemented in active portfolio management. This approach uses analysts' forecasts to derive return expectations by equating the present value of expected cash-flows to the current market price. It is found that active investment strategies which maximize implied expected returns significantly outperform a passive index investment. A significant part of this outperformance can be explained by the difference between the implied expected return and the return expectation justified by the CAPM. The empirical results suggest that a substantial part of this difference can be attributed to an optimism bias in analysts' forecasts. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2005

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  • Olaf Stotz, 2005. "Active Portfolio Management, Implied Expected Returns, and Analyst Optimism," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 261-275, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:19:y:2005:i:3:p:261-275
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-005-4694-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Kerl & Oscar Stolper & Andreas Walter, 2012. "Tagging the triggers: an empirical analysis of information events prompting sell-side analyst reports," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(2), pages 217-246, June.
    2. Florian Esterer & David Schröder, 2014. "Implied cost of capital investment strategies: evidence from international stock markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-195, May.
    3. Breuer, Wolfgang & Feilke, Franziska & Gürtler, Marc, 2007. "Analysts' dividend forecasts, portfolio selection, and market risk premia," Working Papers FW25V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    4. Stefan Kanne & Jan Klobucnik & Daniel Kreutzmann & Soenke Sievers, 2012. "To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(4), pages 405-428, December.

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