IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v33y2005i1p43-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study

Author

Listed:
  • Farrokh Nourzad

Abstract

This study examines various claims that in the U.S., international trade has contributed to a loss of manufacturing base, an increased gap between unskilled and skilled wages, lower employment, and a loss of productivity. Cointegration tests indicate that in the long run and at the macro level, the ratio of trade to output and FDI to output are correlated with the manufacturing share of output, the ratio of unskilled to skilled wages, labor productivity, and the employment rate. However, Granger causality tests reveal that, with one exception, causation does not run from trade to the domestic variables, the only exception being that FDI Granger causes productivity. When the focus is shifted to the manufacturing sector, the results support the proposition that openness to trade has had adverse effects on this sector. Copyright IAES 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Farrokh Nourzad, 2005. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(1), pages 43-54, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:33:y:2005:i:1:p:43-54
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-005-1644-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11293-005-1644-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-005-1644-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "On the Labor Market Effects of Immigration and Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 213-244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    3. Paul Krugman & Robert Lawrence, 1993. "Trade, Jobs, and Wages," NBER Working Papers 4478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7907 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    6. Patrick Messerlin, 1995. "The Impact of Trade and Capital Movements on Labour: Evidence on the French Case," Post-Print hal-00972837, HAL.
    7. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C. & Wright, Peter, 1999. "An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 485-500, September.
    8. John Davis, 1999. "Is Trade Liberalization an Important Cause of Increasing U.S. Wage Inequality? The Interaction of Theory and Policy," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 488-506.
    9. Mariano Bella & Beniamino Quintieri, 2000. "The Effect of Trade on Employment and Wages in Italian Industry," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 14(2), pages 291-310, June.
    10. André Sapir & Dieter Schumacher, 1985. "The employment impact of shifts in the composition of commodity and services trade," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8260, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7907 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathalie Chusseau & Michel Dumont & Joël Hellier, 2008. "Explaining Rising Inequality: Skill‐Biased Technical Change And North–South Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 409-457, July.
    2. Onaran, Özlem, 2008. "The effect of import penetration on labor market outcomes in Austrian manufacturing industry," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 119, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Ellen Brock & Sabien Dobbelaere, 2006. "Has International Trade Affected Workers’ Bargaining Power?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 233-266, July.
    4. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C. & Wright, Peter, 1999. "An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 485-500, September.
    5. Tiago Pereira, 2016. "The effect of developing countries' competition on regional labour markets in Portugal," GEE Papers 0058, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    6. Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa & Eve Caroli & Philippe Aghion, 1999. "Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1615-1660, December.
    7. Zeng, Xiangquan & Yuxue, Cui & Shisong, Qing & Yumei, Yang, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Trade and Employment: Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 5931, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Alfred V. Guender & Sharon McCaw, 2001. "The Role of Openness in the Debate on Rules vs. Discretion: A Simple Exposition," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 91-110, March.
    9. Krugman, Paul R., 2000. "Technology, trade and factor prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 51-71, February.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    11. James Harrigan & Rita Balaban, 1999. "U.S. Wages in General Equilibrium: The Effects of Prices, Technology, and Factor Supplies, 1963-1991," NBER Working Papers 6981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. R. E. Baldwin & G. G. Cain, "undated". "Shifts in U.S. Relative Wages: The Role of Trade, Technology, and Factor Endowments," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1132-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    13. Manasse, Paolo & Stanca, Luca & Turrini, Alessandro, 2004. "Wage premia and skill upgrading in Italy: why didn't the hound bark?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-83, February.
    14. Peter Huber & Yvonne Wolfmayr-Schnitzer, 2000. "Außenhandel und Löhne. Ein Literaturüberblick," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 73(3), pages 197-210, March.
    15. Paolo Manasse & Luca Stanca, 2002. "Working on the Train: Technology, Trade and Wages in Italian Manufacturing," Working Papers 61, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2002.
    16. Feenstra, R.C. & Hanson, G.H., 1995. "Foreign Investment, Outsourcing and Relative Wages," Papers 95-14, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
    17. Franz, Wolfgang, 1999. "Real and monetary challenges to wage policy in Germany at the turn of the millennium: technical progress, globalization and European Monetary Union," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-48, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Ekholm, Karolina & Midelfart, Karen Helene, 2005. "Relative wages and trade-induced changes in technology," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1637-1663, August.
    19. Fabrizio Antenucci, 2018. "China Syndrome Or Not? Labour Market Effects Of A Greater Trade Openness In Us Manufacturing," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0242, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    20. Gorg, Holger & Hanley, Aoife, 2005. "Labour demand effects of international outsourcing: Evidence from plant-level data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 365-376.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C32; E10; F40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:33:y:2005:i:1:p:43-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.