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Stationarity and Co-Integration in Systems with Three National Real Estate Indices

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    Abstract

    This study examines the stochastic properties of the commercial real estate wealth indices for three countries (the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.) and for several property types (aggregate, office, retail, and industrial). Each of the indices is tested for a unit root and all series are found to be nonstationary. Furthermore, all indices also indicate the presence of both drift and trend. The results are strongest when the indices are tested in real estate and exchange rate-adjusted form. Application of Johansen's model indicates that the system for the three countries shows evidence of co-integration for the aggregate, retail, office, and industrial properties. Again, the evidence is the strongest when the indices are tested in real and exchange rate-adjusted form. Hence, it is conceivable that inflationary expectations may be the factor that provides the common linkage between commercial real estate across national boundaries.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol13n03/v13p369.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 13 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 369-381

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:13:n:3:1997:p:369-381

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-90, June.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    3. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley qt8rg1h520, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Lawrence J. Radecki & Vincent Reinhart, 1988. "The globalization of financial markets and the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 18-27.
    6. Bruce Kasman & Charles Pigott, 1988. "Interest rate divergences among the major industrial nations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 28-44.
    7. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Hurn, A Stan, 1992. " Cointegration and Dynamic Time Series Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43.
    8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:
    1. Pat Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg & Richard Gerlach, 2002. "Structural Breaks and Diversification: The Impact of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis on the Integration of Asia-Pacific Real Estate Markets," Working Paper Series, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney 121, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Oikarinen, Elias, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi, 2004. "The transmission of shocks across real estate investment trust (REIT) markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1211-1217.
    4. Nafeesa Yunus & J. Hansz & Paul Kennedy, 2012. "Dynamic Interactions Between Private and Public Real Estate Markets: Some International Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1021-1040, November.

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