The use of encompassing tests for forecast combinations
AbstractThis paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts when there are a large number of forecasts that might enter the combination. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a US macroeconomic dataset. The results are encouraging; the algorithm forecasts outperform benchmark model forecasts, in a mean square error (MSE) sense, in a majority of cases. The paper also compares the empirical performance of different approaches to forecast combination, and provides a rule-of‐thumb cut‐off point for the thick‐modeling approach. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
forecast combination ; forecast encompassing ; thick‐modeling ;
Other versions of this item:
- Turgut Kisinbay, 2007. "The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 07/264, International Monetary Fund.
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- Leonardo Morales-Arias & Alexander Dross, 2010. "Adaptive Forecasting of Exchange Rates with Panel Data," Kiel Working Papers 1656, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Antonis Michis, 2012. "Monitoring Forecasting Combinations with Semiparametric Regression Models," Working Papers 2012-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
- Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2010. "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 725-743, October.
- A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
- Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
- Leonardo Morales-Arias & Alexander Dross, 2010. "Adaptive Forecasting of Exchange Rates with Panel Data," Research Paper Series 285, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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