This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Forecasting using high-frequency data: a comparison of asymmetric financial duration models

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Qi Zhang (Leeds University Business School, UK)
Charlie X Cai (Leeds University Business School, UK)
Kevin Keasey (Leeds University Business School, UK)
Abstract

The first purpose of this paper is to assess the short-run forecasting capabilities of two competing financial duration models. The forecast performance of the Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial-Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACM-ACD) model is better than the Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration (AACD) model. However, the ACM-ACD model is more complex in terms of the computational setting and is more sensitive to starting values. The second purpose is to examine the effects of market microstructure on the forecasting performance of the two models. The results indicate that the forecast performance of the models generally decreases as the liquidity of the stock increases, with the exception of the most liquid stocks. Furthermore, a simple filter of the raw data improves the performance of both models. Finally, the results suggest that both models capture the characteristics of the micro data very well with a minimum sample length of 20 days. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1100
File Format: text/html
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 371-386
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:5:p:371-386

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? LogEc provides statistical analysis about downloads from this service (and others).

This page was last updated on 2009-12-10.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.