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P|E changes: some new results

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Author Info

  • Thomas Zorn

    (Department of Finance, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Nebraska, USA)

  • Donna Dudney

    (Department of Finance, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Nebraska, USA)

  • Benjamas Jirasakuldech

    (School of Business, Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania, USA)

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    Abstract

    The P|E ratio is often used as a metric to compare individual stocks and the market as a whole relative to historical valuations. We examine the factors that affect changes in the inverse of the P|E ratio (E|P) over time in the broad market (S&P 500 Index). Our model includes variables that measure investor beliefs and changes in tax rates and shows that these variables are important factors affecting the P|E ratio. We extend prior work by correcting for the presence of a long-run relation between variables included in the model. As frequently conjectured, changes in the P|E ratio have predictive power. Our model explains a large portion of the variation in E|P and accurately predicts the future direction of E|P, particularly when predicted changes in E|P are large or provide a consistent signal over more than one quarter. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1097
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 358-370

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    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:4:p:358-370

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    Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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