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Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting

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Author Info
Rob J. Hyndman (Monash University, Australia)
Lydia Shenstone (Monash University, Australia)

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Abstract

Croston's method is widely used to predict inventory demand when it is intermittent. However, it is an ad hoc method with no properly formulated underlying stochastic model. In this paper, we explore possible models underlying Croston's method and three related methods, and we show that any underlying model will be inconsistent with the properties of intermittent demand data. However, we find that the point forecasts and prediction intervals based on such underlying models may still be useful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.963
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 389-402
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:24:y:2005:i:6:p:389-402

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Snyder, Ralph, 2002. "Forecasting sales of slow and fast moving inventories," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 684-699, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Syntetos, A. A. & Boylan, J. E., 2001. "On the bias of intermittent demand estimates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 457-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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