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Bielefeld May In Fact Not Exist – Empirical Evidence From Official Population Data

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  • Winter Patrick

    (Independent Researcher, Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

The “Bielefeld conspiracy” has long disputed the existence of Bielefeld, a (supposed) German city. In this paper, an approach is developed to test such a theory empirically by auditing officially reported population numbers, arguing that real cities would not fake these. It is shown that Bielefeld’s data, in fact, violate the Benford law, a statistical law that they should follow if they were genuine. This anomaly is found only for Bielefeld, in contrast to all other tested similar and dissimilar cities, across two decades, and with highest significance by five statistical tests. The Bielefeld conspiracy remains as the most or even only plausible explanation for these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Winter Patrick, 2023. "Bielefeld May In Fact Not Exist – Empirical Evidence From Official Population Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(1), pages 29-38, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:243:y:2023:i:1:p:29-38:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2022-0038
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fewster, R. M., 2009. "A Simple Explanation of Benford's Law," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(1), pages 26-32.
    2. Tam Cho, Wendy K. & Gaines, Brian J., 2007. "Breaking the (Benford) Law: Statistical Fraud Detection in Campaign Finance," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 61, pages 218-223, August.
    3. repec:cai:poeine:pope_204_0753 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population data; Benford law; Bielefeld conspiracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions

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