IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jas/jasssj/2013-171-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nowcasting in Microsimulation Models: A Methodological Survey

Author

Abstract

In this paper, we survey the use of nowcasting methods in Microsimulation models. These nowcasting methods differ in a number of respects to the more established methods of forecasting. The main distinction is that while forecasting extrapolates from current data to estimate the future, the methods of nowcasting extrapolate from data of the recent past to reflect the present situation. In this paper, we undertake a survey of a number of modelling teams globally, selected for their experience and breadth of use with the methodologies of nowcasting and to ascertain the modelling choices made. Different methodologies are used to adjust the different components, with indexation or price uprating applied for the adjustments to growth in wages or prices, the updating of tax-benefit policy to adjust for policy change and either static or dynamic ageing to account for changes to the population and labour market structure. Our survey reports some of the choices made. We find that these model teams are increasingly utilising variants of these methods for short-term projections, which is relatively novel relative to the published literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Cathal O'Donoghue & Jason Loughrey, 2014. "Nowcasting in Microsimulation Models: A Methodological Survey," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(4), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2013-171-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jasss.org/17/4/12/12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fran??ois Bourguignon & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2002. "Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions Across Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 478, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Bourguignon, Francois & Fournier, M & Gurgand, M, 2001. "Fast Development with a Stable Income Distribution: Taiwan, 1979-94," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(2), pages 139-163, June.
    3. Sutherland, Holly, 2001. "EUROMOD: an integrated European benefit-tax model: final report," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/01, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Redmond,Gerry & Sutherland,Holly & Wilson,Moira, 1998. "The Arithmetic of Tax and Social Security Reform," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632249.
    5. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Herwig Immervoll & Cathal O’Donoghue & Jules Linden & Denisa Sologon, 2023. "Who pays for higher carbon prices?: Illustration for Lithuania and a research agenda," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    2. Michal Myck & Mateusz Najsztub, 2015. "Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(1), pages 33-66.
    3. Cathal O'Donoghue & Gijs Dekkers, 2018. "Increasing the Impact of Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 61-96.
    4. Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2020. "Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 321-336, June.
    5. O'Donoghue, Cathal & M. Sologon, Denisa & Kyzyma, Iryna & McHale, John, 2020. "Modelling the distributional impact of the Covid-19 crisis in Ireland," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA4/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    7. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sologon, Denisa Maria, 2023. "The Transformation of Public Policy Analysis in Times of Crisis – A Microsimulation-Nowcasting Method Using Big Data," IZA Discussion Papers 15937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & José Ricardo Nogueira & Cathal O´Donoghue & Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira, 2005. "The Impact of Brazil´s Tax-Benefit System on Inequality and Poverty," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 117, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Bargain, Olivier & Orsini, Kristian, 2006. "In-work policies in Europe: Killing two birds with one stone?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 667-697, December.
    3. Cathal O’Donoghue & Denisa M Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2021. "A Microsimulation Analysis of the Distributional Impact over the Three Waves of the COVID-19 Crisis in Ireland," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 14(2), pages 81-105.
    4. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    5. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2011. "Tax-Benefit Systems in Europe and the US: Between Equity and Efficiency," CESifo Working Paper Series 3534, CESifo.
    6. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2014. "Comparing inequality aversion across countries when labor supply responses differ," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(5), pages 845-873, October.
    7. Nicholas-James Clavet & Luca Tiberti & Marko Vladisavljevic & Jelena Zarkovic Rakic & Aleksandra Anic & Gorana Krstic & Sasa Randelovic, 2017. "Reduction of child poverty in Serbia: Improved cash-transfers or higher work incentives for parents?," Working Papers PMMA 2017-04, PEP-PMMA.
    8. Cathal O'Donoghue & Massimo Baldini, 2004. "Modelling the Redistributive Impact of Indirect Taxes in Europe: An Application of EUROMOD," Working Papers 0077, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2004.
    9. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2014. "Tax-Benefit Revealed Social Preferences in Europe and the US," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 113-114, pages 257-289.
    10. Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2007. "Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 1-44, January.
    11. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    12. Bart Capéau & André Decoster & Stijn Van Houtven, 2024. "Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 111-149, January.
    13. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Immervoll, Herwig, 2001. "Towards a multi purpose framework for tax benefit microsimulation," EUROMOD Working Papers EM2/01, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Clauss, Markus & Schubert, Stefanie, 2009. "The ZEW combined microsimulation-CGE model: innovative tool for applied policy analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Thor O. Thoresen & Zhiyang Jia & Peter J. Lambert, 2013. "Distributional benchmarking in tax policy evaluations," Discussion Papers 765, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. O'Donoghue, Cathal & M. Sologon, Denisa & Kyzyma, Iryna & McHale, John, 2020. "Modelling the distributional impact of the Covid-19 crisis in Ireland," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA4/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    18. Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2020. "Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 321-336, June.
    19. Thor O. Thoresen & Zhiyang Jia & Peter J. Lambert, 2016. "Is there More Redistribution Now? A Review of Methods for Evaluating Tax Redistributional Effects," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(3), pages 302-333, September.
    20. Callan, Tim & Keeney, Mary J. & Nolan, Brian & Maitre, Bertrand, 2004. "Why is Relative Income Poverty so High in Ireland?," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS53, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2013-171-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Renzini (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.