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Interdicting a Nuclear-Weapons Project

Author

Listed:
  • Gerald G. Brown

    (Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93942)

  • W. Matthew Carlyle

    (Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93942)

  • Robert C. Harney

    (Systems Engineering Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93942)

  • Eric M. Skroch

    (Northrop Grumman Corporation, Virginia Beach, Virginia 23452)

  • R. Kevin Wood

    (Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93942)

Abstract

A “proliferator” seeks to complete a first small batch of fission weapons as quickly as possible, whereas an “interdictor” wishes to delay that completion for as long as possible. We develop and solve a max-min model that identifies resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion time of the proliferator's weapons project, given that the proliferator will observe any such actions and adjust his plans to minimize that time. The model incorporates a detailed project-management (critical path method) submodel, and standard optimization software solves the model in a few minutes on a personal computer. We exploit off-the-shelf project-management software to manage a database, control the optimization, and display results. Using a range of levels for interdiction effort, we analyze a published case study that models three alternate uranium-enrichment technologies. The task of “cascade loading” appears in all technologies and turns out to be an inherent fragility for the proliferator at all levels of interdiction effort. Such insights enable policy makers to quantify the effects of interdiction options at their disposal, be they diplomatic, economic, or military.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald G. Brown & W. Matthew Carlyle & Robert C. Harney & Eric M. Skroch & R. Kevin Wood, 2009. "Interdicting a Nuclear-Weapons Project," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 866-877, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:57:y:2009:i:4:p:866-877
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1080.0643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. G. Malcolm & J. H. Roseboom & C. E. Clark & W. Fazar, 1959. "Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 7(5), pages 646-669, October.
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    4. Gerald Brown & Matthew Carlyle & Javier Salmerón & Kevin Wood, 2006. "Defending Critical Infrastructure," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 530-544, December.
    5. James E. Kelley, 1961. "Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling: Mathematical Basis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 296-320, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sreekumaran, Harikrishnan & Hota, Ashish R. & Liu, Andrew L. & Uhan, Nelson A. & Sundaram, Shreyas, 2021. "Equilibrium strategies for multiple interdictors on a common network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(2), pages 523-538.
    2. Xiang, Yin, 2023. "Minimizing the maximal reliable path with a nodal interdiction model considering resource sharing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. Smith, J. Cole & Song, Yongjia, 2020. "A survey of network interdiction models and algorithms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 797-811.
    4. Karwowski, Jan & Mańdziuk, Jacek, 2019. "A Monte Carlo Tree Search approach to finding efficient patrolling schemes on graphs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 255-268.
    5. Nguyen, Di H. & Smith, J. Cole, 2022. "Network interdiction with asymmetric cost uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(1), pages 239-251.
    6. Bhuiyan, Tanveer Hossain & Medal, Hugh R. & Nandi, Apurba K. & Halappanavar, Mahantesh, 2021. "Risk-averse bi-level stochastic network interdiction model for cyber-security risk management," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Wei, Ningji & Walteros, Jose L., 2022. "Integer programming methods for solving binary interdiction games," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 456-469.
    8. Pinker, Edieal & Szmerekovsky, Joseph & Tilson, Vera, 2014. "On the complexity of project scheduling to minimize exposed time," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 448-453.
    9. Ketkov, Sergey S. & Prokopyev, Oleg A., 2020. "On greedy and strategic evaders in sequential interdiction settings with incomplete information," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Hermans, Ben & Leus, Roel & Looy, Bart Van, 2023. "Deciding on scheduling, secrecy, and patenting during the new product development process: The relevance of project planning models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Fischetti, Matteo & Monaci, Michele & Sinnl, Markus, 2018. "A dynamic reformulation heuristic for Generalized Interdiction Problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 40-51.
    12. Bakker, Craig & Webster, Jennifer B. & Nowak, Kathleen E. & Chatterjee, Samrat & Perkins, Casey J. & Brigantic, Robert, 2020. "Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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