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Análisis del riesgo de quiebra de instituciones financieras peruanas, 2015-2021

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Gabriel Rossi Ortiz

    (Universidad Privada Del Norte, Perú)

  • Ricardo Manuel Rossi Valverde

    (Universidad Privada Antenor Orrego, Perú)

Abstract

En Perú, la dinámica económica de la Banca Múltiple y las Cajas Municipales es relevante; sin embargo, estas no han sido estudiadas en cuanto al riesgo de quiebra, indicador importante en la gestión financiera y la calificación crediticia. La presente investigación pretende ser un nuevo aporte en el tema, ya que se analizó a 26 instituciones financieras activas con el objetivo de evaluar el riesgo de quiebra. Utilizando el análisis discriminante múltiple del modelo Z de Altman complementado con la media armónica, los resultados muestran evidencia empírica de que solo el 20% de las instituciones de la Banca Múltiple se ubica en la zona segura y un preocupante 13% se ubica en la zona de quiebra. Además, las Cajas Municipales cuentan con una relativa mejor salud financiera al ubicarse el 100% fuera de la zona de quiebra. Se sugiere realizar estudios en países con economías similares. Una limitación fue el haberse trabajado con datos históricos. Entre las conclusiones a destacar: se encuentra que, el modelo Z de Altman es eficaz en la predicción del riesgo de quiebra de instituciones financieras.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Gabriel Rossi Ortiz & Ricardo Manuel Rossi Valverde, 2022. "Análisis del riesgo de quiebra de instituciones financieras peruanas, 2015-2021," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:3:a:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banca Múltiple; Caja Municipal; Balance General; Estado de Ganancias y Pérdidas; Riesgo de quiebra.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General
    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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