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Linear versus Nonlinear Macroeconomies: A Statistical Test

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  • Ashley, Richard A
  • Patterson, Douglas M

Abstract

A statistical test based on the estimated bispectrum is presented, which can distinguish between the linear stochastic dynamics widely used in macroeconomic models and alternative nonlinear dynamic mechanisms, including both nonlinear stochastic models and nonlinear deterministic (chaotic) models. The test is applied to an aggregate stock market index and to an aggregate industrial production index. In both cases, the test easily rejects the null hypothesis of a linear stochastic generating mechanism. This result strongly suggests that nonlinear dynamics (deterministic or stochastic) should be an important feature of any empirically plausible macroeconomic model. Copyright 1989 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 30 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 685-704

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:30:y:1989:i:3:p:685-704

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Cited by:
  1. David Chappell & Robert Eldridge, 1997. "Non-linear characteristics of the sterling/European Currency Unit exchange rate: 1984-1992," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 159-182.
  2. Lubos Briatka, 2006. "How Big is Big Enough? Justifying Results of the iid Test Based on the Correlation Integral in the Non-Normal World," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp308, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  3. Elena Rusticelli & Richard Ashley & Estela Bee Dagum & Douglas Patterson, 2009. "A New Bispectral Test for NonLinear Serial Dependence," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 279-293.
  4. T Tang, 2009. "Testing for Non-linearity in the Balancing Item of Balance of Payments Accounts: The Case of 20 Industrial Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 107-124, September.
  5. Jeyanthi Karuppiah & Cornelis A. Los, 2000. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency FX Rates, Summer 1997," School of Economics Working Papers 2000-06, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  6. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  7. William A. Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 1996. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos," Econometrics 9602005, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 1996.
  8. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
  9. Valderrama, Diego, 2007. "Statistical nonlinearities in the business cycle: A challenge for the canonical RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2957-2983, September.
  10. Cornelis A. Los & Jeyanthi Karuppiah, 2004. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency Asian FX Rates, Summer 1997," Finance 0409037, EconWPA.
  11. Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1995. "Testing for Nonlinearities in Economic and Financial Time Series," Working Paper Series 48, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  12. Diego Valderrama, 2003. "Statistical Nonlinearities in the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 219, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Teles, Paulo & Wei, William W. S., 2000. "The effects of temporal aggregation on tests of linearity of a time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 91-103, July.
  14. Diego Valderrama, 2002. "Nonlinearities in international business cycles," Working Paper Series 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Pfann, Gerard A., 1996. "Factor demand models with nonlinear short-run fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 315-331.
  16. Peter Kugler, 1990. "Sind Wechselkursfluktuationen zufällig oder chaotisch?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 126(II), pages 113-129, June.

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