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Latin America´s response to China and India: overview of research findings and policy implications - Observatorio de Política

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  • Daniel Lederman

    (World Bank, Washington, DC)

  • Marcelo Olarreaga

    (University of Geneva)

  • Guillermo Perry

    (Fedesarollo, Bogotá, Colombia)

Abstract

The economic success of China and India is looked upon with admiration but also concern about the effects that the growth of these Asian economies may have on the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region’s manufacturing and services sectors. The evidence summarized here indicates that certain manufacturing and service industries in some countries, particularly in Mexico and to a lesser extent in Central America and the Caribbean, have been negatively affected by Chinese and Indian competition in third markets. Also, LAC imports from China and India have been associated with modest unemployment and adjustment costs in manufacturing industries. Nevertheless, there is substantial evidence of positive aggregate effects for LAC economies associated with China and India’s greater presence in world exports, financial flows, and innovation. Even though there is significant heterogeneity of such effects across LAC sub-regions, China and India’s growth is creating new production possibilities for LAC economies, in particular for sectors that rely on natural resources and scientific knowledge, which not only benefit from the growing internal markets of the two Asian economies and their effect on commodity prices, but also from complementarities in third markets through production networks, cheaper inputs and capital, and innovation spillovers. In sum, China and India’s growth has not been a zero-sum game for LAC, but the potential benefits are not being fully realized. It is crucial that LAC countries take full advantage of the growing presence of China and India in world markets by adopting offensive strategies that facilitate both the participation of LAC firms in global production networks and their commercial presence in the two Asian economies’ markets. Governments should avoid protectionist temptations and should focus on facilitating the adjustment in affected sectors, as well as the emerging structural shift towards more natural-resource and scientific-knowledgeintensive sectors by adopting adequate education, innovation (both patentable and non patentable), natural resource management, and rural development policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas in its journal Revista de Economía y Estadística.

Volume (Year): XLV (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 149-193

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Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:45:y:2007:i:1:p:149-193

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Keywords: Economic Theory & Research; Free Trade; Trade Policy; Markets and Market Access;

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Cravino, Javier & Lederman, Daniel & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2007. "Substitution between foreign capital in China, India, the Rest of the world, and Latin America : much ado about nothing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4361, The World Bank.
  2. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Giovanni Facchini & Marcelo Olarreaga & Peri Silva & Gerald Willmann, 2010. "Substitutability and Protectionism: Latin America's Trade Policy and Imports from China and India," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 446-473, June.
  4. Lederman, Daniel & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Payton, Lucy, 2006. "Export Promotion Agencies: What Works and What Doesn't," CEPR Discussion Papers 5810, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Hiau Looi Kee, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation and Export Variety: A Comparison of Mexico and China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 5-21, 01.
  6. Lane, Philip R. & Schmukler, Sergio, 2006. "The International Financial Integration of China and India," CEPR Discussion Papers 5852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 693-708, June.
  8. Caroline Freund & Diana Weinhold, 2002. "The Internet and International Trade in Services," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 236-240, May.
  9. Dilek Aykut & Andrea Goldstein, 2006. "Developing Country Multinationals: South-South Investment Comes of Age," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 257, OECD Publishing.
  10. Castro, Lucio & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Saslavsky, Daniel, 2007. "The impact of trade with China and India on Argentina's manufacturing employment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4153, The World Bank.
  11. Lederman, Daniel & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Soloaga, Isidro, 2007. "The growth of China and India in world trade : opportunity or threat for Latin America and the Caribbean?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4320, The World Bank.
  12. Cravino, Javier & Lederman, Daniel & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2007. "Foreign direct investment in Latin America during the emergence of China and India : stylized facts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4360, The World Bank.
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