IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/amerfa/v3y2014i2-3-4p217-233.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are major global stock markets efficient? An application of the martingale difference hypothesis with wild bootstrap

Author

Listed:
  • Dilip Kumar
  • Srinivasan Maheswaran

Abstract

This paper tests the finite sample properties of the Kuan and Lee's (KL) test to study market efficiency by mean of extensive Monte Carlo experiments using different data generating processes. We apply the KL test with and without wild bootstrap on the six global stock indices covering major US, European and Asian stock markets to test the martingale difference hypothesis. In addition, we apply a moving sub-sample approach to examine the evolution of market efficiency over time and to obtain inferential findings that are robust to the presence of influential outliers. We find a significant improvement in the small sample properties of the KL test under conditional heteroskedasticity when applied with the wild bootstrap procedure. On the empirical side, we find that, except for the German stock market, all the other markets under study have become more efficient after the sub-prime crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip Kumar & Srinivasan Maheswaran, 2014. "Are major global stock markets efficient? An application of the martingale difference hypothesis with wild bootstrap," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(2/3/4), pages 217-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:amerfa:v:3:y:2014:i:2/3/4:p:217-233
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=60818
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Psaradakis Zacharias, 2000. "p-Value Adjustments for Multiple Tests for Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-8, October.
    3. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-185, September.
    4. Belaire-Franch Jorge & Contreras Dulce, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Property of Exchange Rates: A Replication," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    6. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    7. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
    8. Manuel Dominguez & Ignacio Lobato, 2003. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 351-377.
    9. Bierens, Herman J., 1982. "Consistent model specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 105-134, October.
    10. repec:cdl:ucsbec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chen, Yi-Ting & Chou, Ray Y. & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Testing time reversibility without moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 199-218, March.
    12. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    13. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-254.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2003. "Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 383-395, July.
    16. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    17. Black, Fischer, 1986. "Noise," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 529-543, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    3. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    5. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "A Test Of The Efficiency Of The Foreign Exchange Market In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 0(12th BMEB), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2014. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 537-554, October.
    7. Amelie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Testing for Random Walk Behavior in Euro Exchange Rates," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 25-45.
    8. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-35.
    9. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2023. "Price efficiency of the foreign exchange rates of BRICS countries: A comparative analysis," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    10. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Xuexin WANG, 2021. "Generalized Spectral Tests for High Dimensional Multivariate Martingale Difference Hypotheses," Working Papers 2021-11-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    12. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    13. Shyh-wei Chen, 2009. "Random walks in asian foreign exchange markets:evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1296-1307.
    14. Md Lutfur Rahman & Mahbub Khan & Samuel A. Vigne & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Equity return predictability, its determinants, and profitable trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 162-186, January.
    15. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2019. "Robust analysis of the martingale hypothesis," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 17-41.
    17. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
    18. Roberto Ortiz & Mauricio Contreras & Marcelo Villena, 2015. "On the Efficient Market Hypothesis of Stock Market Indexes: The Role of Non-synchronous Trading and Portfolio Effects," Papers 1510.03926, arXiv.org.
    19. Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Khalili Araghi, Mansour, 2014. "Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 50-59.
    20. Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Claudia Kirch & Simos G. Meintanis, 2017. "Fourier--type tests involving martingale difference processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 468-492, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:amerfa:v:3:y:2014:i:2/3/4:p:217-233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=229 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.