IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijmsjn/v12y2020i4p63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes

Author

Listed:
  • Mickey M. Kislev
  • Shira Kislev

Abstract

The study analyzes the diffusion of electronic cigarettes as an innovation, as well as how industry, society, and the individual affect its market dynamics. The study is based on five surveys conducted during the years 2017-2019, and including participants of all ages (age 12 to 80 and beyond). The article describes indicators for evaluating the sustainability of a really-new product like electronic cigarettes, following the market trajectory of this product as it sets its dominant design and shapes the use-system for the product type from now onward. This process has two phases- trial and adoption. The probability of each nicotine product type’s adoption is different, depending on the prevalence of trials of that product among the population. The results of e-cigarette trials and additional indicators reveal the point (critical mass-point) where social influence outweighs rational evaluation by the individual regarding nicotine products. By using triers’ prevalence as the indicator for measuring an entry of really-new product into the market, the authors could identify the sustainability of that really-new product at a much early phase. Therefore, the prevalence of triers can be used as a predictor for the diffusion rate of an innovative product in a certain population and should be measured. The authors also propose a regression model that estimates the prevalence of triers based on the extent of users in the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Mickey M. Kislev & Shira Kislev, 2020. "The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes," International Journal of Marketing Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-63, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijmsjn:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijms/article/download/0/0/44285/46668
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijms/article/view/0/44285
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nina Shapiro, 1986. "Innovation, New Industries and New Firms," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 27-43, Jan-Mar.
    2. Kiran Karande & Altaf Merchant & K. Sivakumar, 2011. "Erratum to: Relationships among time orientation, consumer innovativeness, and innovative behavior: the moderating role of product characteristics," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 1(2), pages 99-116, June.
    3. Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E M & Gielens, Katrijn, 2003. "Consumer and Market Drivers of the Trial Probability of New Consumer Packaged Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 368-384, December.
    4. Kamakura, Wagner A & Novak, Thomas P, 1992. "Value-System Segmentation: Exploring the Meaning of LOV," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 19(1), pages 119-132, June.
    5. Clark, Kim B., 1985. "The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 235-251, October.
    6. Dan Horsky & Leonard S. Simon, 1983. "Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17.
    7. L. Dean Hiebert, 1974. "Risk, Learning, and the Adoption of Fertilizer Responsive Seed Varieties," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(4), pages 764-768.
    8. Enis, Ben M. & La Garce, Raymond & Prell, Arthur E., 1977. "Extending the product life cycle," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 46-56, June.
    9. Frank W. Geels, 2005. "Technological Transitions and System Innovations," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3576.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kislev, Mickey M. & Kislev, Shira, 2020. "The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes," MPRA Paper 104425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ataman, B.M., 2007. "Managing brands," Other publications TiSEM 462dcbba-2ac1-46d1-a61c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. M. Berk Ataman & Carl F. Mela & Harald J. van Heerde, 2008. "Building Brands," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 1036-1054, 11-12.
    4. Sandén, Björn A. & Hillman, Karl M., 2011. "A framework for analysis of multi-mode interaction among technologies with examples from the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 403-414, April.
    5. Marc Fischer & Peter Leeflang & Peter Verhoef, 2010. "Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 429-460, December.
    6. John Hauser & Gerard J. Tellis & Abbie Griffin, 2006. "Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 687-717, 11-12.
    7. Andreas Falke & Nadine Schröder & Claudia Hofmann, 2022. "The influence of values in sustainable consumption among millennials," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(6), pages 899-928, August.
    8. Spiro E. Stefanou, 1987. "Technical Change, Uncertainty, and Investment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 158-165.
    9. Zhang, Yi & Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2019. "Discovering and forecasting interactions in big data research: A learning-enhanced bibliometric study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 795-807.
    10. Okereke, Chukwumerije & Coke, Alexia & Geebreyesus, Mulu & Ginbo, Tsegaye & Wakeford, Jeremy J. & Mulugetta, Yacob, 2019. "Governing green industrialisation in Africa: Assessing key parameters for a sustainable socio-technical transition in the context of Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 279-290.
    11. Marie-Estelle Binet & Lionel Richefort, 2011. "Diffusion of irrigation technologies: the role of mimicking behaviour and public incentives," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 43-48.
    12. Battke, Benedikt & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Stollenwerk, Stephan & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2016. "Internal or external spillovers—Which kind of knowledge is more likely to flow within or across technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 27-41.
    13. Loris Gaio, 2005. "A diversity-based approach to requirements tracing in new product development," ROCK Working Papers 031, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 13 Jun 2008.
    14. Avelino, Flor & Wittmayer, Julia M. & Pel, Bonno & Weaver, Paul & Dumitru, Adina & Haxeltine, Alex & Kemp, René & Jørgensen, Michael S. & Bauler, Tom & Ruijsink, Saskia & O'Riordan, Tim, 2019. "Transformative social innovation and (dis)empowerment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 195-206.
    15. Roberto Fontana, 2000. "Determinants of Innovation and Competition of Component System Technologies in the Local Area Network Industry," KITeS Working Papers 117, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Sep 2000.
    16. Ivan Sciascia, 2023. "From Market Segmentation to Customer Loyalty," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 18(4), pages 192-192, August.
    17. Rajshree Agarwal & Barry L. Bayus, 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1024-1041, August.
    18. Diwas Singh KC & Bradley R. Staats, 2012. "Accumulating a Portfolio of Experience: The Effect of Focal and Related Experience on Surgeon Performance," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(4), pages 618-633, October.
    19. Colvin, John & Blackmore, Chris & Chimbuya, Sam & Collins, Kevin & Dent, Mark & Goss, John & Ison, Ray & Roggero, Pier Paolo & Seddaiu, Giovanna, 2014. "In search of systemic innovation for sustainable development: A design praxis emerging from a decade of social learning inquiry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 760-771.
    20. Deepa Chandrasekaran & Gerard J. Tellis, 2008. "Global Takeoff of New Products: Culture, Wealth, or Vanishing Differences?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 844-860, 09-10.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijmsjn:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.