Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

El control del gasto público por incapacidad temporal mediante redes neuronales

Contents:

Author Info

  • Daniel Santín González

    ()
    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Rosa Romay López

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

La incapacidad temporal (IT) en España generó en el año 2001 unos costes directos de cuatro mil millones de euros y unos costes indirectos aproximados de doce mil millones de euros. Los métodos actuales de control de la IT se realizan a posteriori, una vez recibida la baja laboral y principalmente sobre la base de duraciones normativas para cada enfermedad. El objetivo de este trabajo es proponer un modelo para la gestión de la IT con el fin de disminuir de forma racional el coste de la prestación por IT no justificado, por medio del control de su duración de manera individualizada. Para este fin se propone el uso de una herramienta flexible, las redes neuronales artificiales (RNAs), que permita predecir la duración de la baja laboral esperada para cada afiliado activo en función de determinadas variables individuales, además de la enfermedad, que también influyen en el tiempo de baja pero que no tienen en cuenta los métodos actuales. Los resultados empíricos de este trabajo, obtenidos para la provincia de Guadalajara durante el período 1995-2001, muestran cómo el modelo de RNAs permite realizar mejores predicciones individualizadas que un modelo tradicional de regresión lineal múltiple. Además, estas predicciones a priori van a permitir racionalizar el proceso de gestión y control de la prestación económica por IT con el consiguiente ahorro de gasto público. Classification-JEL : H51, I18

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ief.es/documentos/recursos/publicaciones/revistas/hac_pub/165_ControlGasto.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 165 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 53-78

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2003:v:165:i:2:p:53-78

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, 378, 28035 Madrid
Phone: 91-339.89.15
Fax: 91-339.89.64
Email:
Web page: http://www.ief.es
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: . Incapacidad temporal; redes neuronales artificiales; control del gasto público.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. repec:wuk:cantec:9601 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  3. Dunn, L F & Youngblood, Stuart A, 1986. "Absenteeism as a Mechanism for Approaching an Optimal Labor Market Equilibrium: An Empirical Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 668-74, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2003:v:165:i:2:p:53-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Olga Cantó Sánchez) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Olga Cantó Sánchez to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.