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Emergency Decision-Making for Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project Using Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Li

    (School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

  • Pengchao Zhang

    (School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

  • Xin Huang

    (School of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

  • Jiabin Sun

    (School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

  • Qian Li

    (School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
    Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China)

Abstract

The middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is one of the crucial frameworks of China’s water network and an essential channel for water resource allocation in North China. The safe operation of the project has a huge impact on regional economic development, social stability and other aspects. The objectives of this research are to improve the disposal efficiency of all kinds of accidents during the operation of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, reduce people’s property losses and ensure the safety of water supply along the line. This paper will put forward a new emergency decision-making method based on case-based reasoning technology and prospect theory. The method is divided into two parts: (1) Collecting the historical case information and building the case library. The frame representation in the case-based reasoning technology is used to describe the characteristics of historical cases and adopt the two-level method of historical cases fast retrieval and similarity fuzzy matching retrieval to complete the preliminary selection of emergency plans; (2) The decision-making and optimization model of disposal plans based on prospect theory, namely, using the value function and probability weight classification to measure the prospect value of similar schemes and selecting the optimal disposal scheme, in order to improve the science and rationality of the decision-making results. Finally, examples are taken to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Li & Pengchao Zhang & Xin Huang & Jiabin Sun & Qian Li, 2022. "Emergency Decision-Making for Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project Using Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-29, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:21:p:13707-:d:950453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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