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Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on River Nutrient Loads in a Data Scarce Region: The Upper Awash River (Ethiopia)

Author

Listed:
  • Gianbattista Bussi

    (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK)

  • Paul G. Whitehead

    (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK)

  • Li Jin

    (Geology Department, State University of New York College at Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, USA)

  • Meron T. Taye

    (Water and Land Resources Centre, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 20474/1000 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

  • Ellen Dyer

    (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK)

  • Feyera A. Hirpa

    (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK)

  • Yosef Abebe Yimer

    (AWASH Basin Development Authority, P.O. Box 20474/1000 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

  • Katrina J. Charles

    (School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK)

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change and population growth on river water quality is a key issue for many developing countries, where multiple and often conflicting river water uses (water supply, irrigation, wastewater disposal) are placing increasing pressure on limited water resources. However, comprehensive water quality datasets are often lacking, thus impeding a full-scale data-based river water quality assessment. Here we propose a model-based approach, using both global datasets and local data to build an evaluation of the potential impact of climate changes and population growth, as well as to verify the efficiency of mitigation measures to curb river water pollution. The upper Awash River catchment in Ethiopia, which drains the city of Addis Ababa as well as many agricultural areas, is used as a case-study. The results show that while decreases in runoff and increases in temperature due to climate change are expected to result in slightly decreased nutrient concentrations, the largest threat to the water quality of the Awash River is population growth, which is expected to increase nutrient loads by 15 to 20% (nitrate) and 30 to 40% (phosphorus) in the river by the second half of the 21st century. Even larger increases are to be expected downstream of large urban areas, such as Addis Ababa. However, improved wastewater treatment options are shown to be efficient in counteracting the negative impact of population growth and returning water pollution to acceptable levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianbattista Bussi & Paul G. Whitehead & Li Jin & Meron T. Taye & Ellen Dyer & Feyera A. Hirpa & Yosef Abebe Yimer & Katrina J. Charles, 2021. "Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on River Nutrient Loads in a Data Scarce Region: The Upper Awash River (Ethiopia)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:1254-:d:486820
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dyer, E. & Washington, R. & Taye, Meron Teferi, 2020. "Evaluating the CMIP5 [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5] ensemble in Ethiopia: creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash Basin," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 40(6):2964-.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    3. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Namrata Kala & Robert Mendelsohn, 2011. "Adaptation And Climate Change Impacts: A Structural Ricardian Model Of Irrigation And Farm Income In Africa," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 149-174.
    4. Feyera A. Hirpa & Lorenzo Alfieri & Thomas Lees & Jian Peng & Ellen Dyer & Simon J. Dadson, 2019. "Streamflow response to climate change in the Greater Horn of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 341-363, October.
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