IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i20p11495-d659167.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

Author

Listed:
  • Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi

    (Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
    Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran)

  • Christine Fürst

    (Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany)

  • Hossein Nazmfar

    (Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran)

  • Ahad Rezayan

    (Futures Studies Department, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran 009821, Iran)

  • Mohammad Hassan Yazdani

    (Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 009845, Iran)

Abstract

Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest salt lakes, is rapidly losing water and drying up. This environmental hazard has raised concerns about the consequences and impact on the surrounding communities. In this paper, we use a futuristic view (horizon of 10 years based on medium-term planning) to identify the main environmental drivers in the surrounding settlements of the Urmia Lake basin. A qualitative method, based on cross-impact analysis, was used as a means of future research. We also used a Delphi-based expert panel method to collect data and extract the environmental impacts of Urmia Lake. After the three rounds of the Delphi process, the expert panel reached a high level of agreement (100%) on the top 17 environmental consequences. Then, these consequences were classified by driving force and dependency using the MICMAC method. The results show that reducing pasture area, soil and water salinity, groundwater decline and depletion, and destruction of surrounding agricultural lands play a significant role in environmental change in Urmia Lake. Overall, any small change in these variables may lead to fundamental changes in the entire system.

Suggested Citation

  • Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi & Christine Fürst & Hossein Nazmfar & Ahad Rezayan & Mohammad Hassan Yazdani, 2021. "A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11495-:d:659167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/20/11495/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/20/11495/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julia Jouan & Aude Ridier & Matthieu Carof, 2020. "Legume production and use in feed: Analysis of levers to improve protein self-sufficiency from foresight scenarios," Post-Print hal-02907077, HAL.
    2. Mathis Loïc Messager & Bernhard Lehner & Günther Grill & Irena Nedeva & Oliver Schmitt, 2016. "Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Jean-François Pekel & Andrew Cottam & Noel Gorelick & Alan S. Belward, 2016. "High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes," Nature, Nature, vol. 540(7633), pages 418-422, December.
    4. Aschemann-Witzel, Jessica & Perez-Cueto, Federico J.A. & Niedzwiedzka, Barbara & Verbeke, Wim & Bech-Larsen, Tino, 2012. "Transferability of private food marketing success factors to public food and health policy: An expert Delphi survey," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 650-660.
    5. Panula-Ontto, Juha & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Kaivo-oja, Jari & O'Mahony, Tadhg & Vehmas, Jarmo & Valkealahti, Seppo & Björkqvist, Tomas & Korpela, Timo & Järventausta, Pertti & Majanne, Yrjö & Kojo, Matti , 2018. "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 504-513.
    6. Alizade Govarchin Ghale, Yusuf & Baykara, Metin & Unal, Alper, 2019. "Investigating the interaction between agricultural lands and Urmia Lake ecosystem using remote sensing techniques and hydro-climatic data analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 566-579.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Amirreza Morshed-Bozorgdel & Saeed Farzin, 2022. "A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-37, February.
    2. Shenzhen Tian & Biyan Jin & Hang Li & Xueming Li & Jun Yang, 2023. "Research on the Theoretical Framework, Spatio-temporal Laws, and Driving Mechanism of Beautiful Human Settlements—A Case Study of the 14 Prefecture-Level Cities in Liaoning Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Rodrigo Valdés-Pineda & Pablo A. Garcia-Chevesich & Alberto J. Alaniz & Héctor L. Venegas-Quiñones & Juan B. Valdés & Roberto Pizarro, 2021. "The Impact of a Lack of Government Strategies for Sustainable Water Management and Land Use Planning on the Hydrology of Water Bodies: Lessons Learned from the Disappearance of the Aculeo Lagoon in Ce," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-33, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qianhan Wu & Linghong Ke & Jida Wang & Tamlin M. Pavelsky & George H. Allen & Yongwei Sheng & Xuejun Duan & Yunqiang Zhu & Jin Wu & Lei Wang & Kai Liu & Tan Chen & Wensong Zhang & Chenyu Fan & Bin Yon, 2023. "Satellites reveal hotspots of global river extent change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Björn Nyberg & Gijs Henstra & Rob L. Gawthorpe & Rodmar Ravnås & Juha Ahokas, 2023. "Global scale analysis on the extent of river channel belts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Gang Zhao & Yao Li & Liming Zhou & Huilin Gao, 2022. "Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Xuehui Pi & Qiuqi Luo & Lian Feng & Yang Xu & Jing Tang & Xiuyu Liang & Enze Ma & Ran Cheng & Rasmus Fensholt & Martin Brandt & Xiaobin Cai & Luke Gibson & Junguo Liu & Chunmiao Zheng & Weifeng Li & B, 2022. "Mapping global lake dynamics reveals the emerging roles of small lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Ya Li & Hanqin Tian & Yuanzhi Yao & Hao Shi & Zihao Bian & Yu Shi & Siyuan Wang & Taylor Maavara & Ronny Lauerwald & Shufen Pan, 2024. "Increased nitrous oxide emissions from global lakes and reservoirs since the pre-industrial era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Dongmei Feng & Colin J. Gleason & Peirong Lin & Xiao Yang & Ming Pan & Yuta Ishitsuka, 2021. "Recent changes to Arctic river discharge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Giacomo Falchetta & Nicolò Stevanato & Magda Moner-Girona & Davide Mazzoni & Emanuela Colombo & Manfred Hafner, 2020. "M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning," Working Papers 2020.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Berggreen, Steve & Mattisson, Linn, 2023. "The Curse of Bad Geography: Stagnant Water, Diseases, and Children’s Human Capital," Working Papers 2023:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    9. Kaveh Madani, 2021. "Have International Sanctions Impacted Iran’s Environment?," World, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Nicolás Ruiz, Néstor & Suárez Alonso, María Luisa & Vidal-Abarca, María Rosario, 2021. "Contributions of dry rivers to human well-being: A global review for future research," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Jinlong Li & Genxu Wang & Chunlin Song & Shouqin Sun & Jiapei Ma & Ying Wang & Linmao Guo & Dongfeng Li, 2024. "Recent intensified erosion and massive sediment deposition in Tibetan Plateau rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    13. Mohammad Zeynoddin & Hossein Bonakdari & Silvio José Gumiere & Alain N. Rousseau, 2023. "Multi-Tempo Forecasting of Soil Temperature Data; Application over Quebec, Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Saulius Baskutis & Jolanta Baskutiene & Valentinas Navickas & Yuriy Bilan & Wojciech Cieśliński, 2021. "Perspectives and Problems of Using Renewable Energy Sources and Implementation of Local “Green” Initiatives: A Regional Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-16, September.
    15. Romy Hulskamp & Arjen Luijendijk & Bas Maren & Antonio Moreno-Rodenas & Floris Calkoen & Etiënne Kras & Stef Lhermitte & Stefan Aarninkhof, 2023. "Global distribution and dynamics of muddy coasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Vinícius B. P. Chagas & Pedro L. B. Chaffe & Günter Blöschl, 2022. "Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Zhang, Yuliang & Wu, Zhiyong & Singh, Vijay P. & Lin, Qingxia & Ning, Shaowei & Zhou, Yuliang & Jin, Juliang & Zhou, Rongxing & Ma, Qiang, 2023. "Agricultural drought characteristics in a typical plain region considering irrigation, crop growth, and water demand impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    18. Paulilo Brasil & Pedro Medeiros, 2020. "NeStRes – Model for Operation of Non-Strategic Reservoirs for Irrigation in Drylands: Model Description and Application to a Semiarid Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 195-210, January.
    19. Kumari, V. Visha & Balloli, S.S. & Ramana, D.B.V. & Kumar, Manoranjan & Maruthi, V. & Prabhakar, M. & Osman, M. & Indoria, A.K. & Manjunath, M. & Chary, G. Ravindra & Gopinath, K.A. & Venkatesh, G. & , 2023. "Crop and livestock productivity, soil health improvement and insect dynamics: Impact of different fodder-based cropping systems in a rainfed region of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    20. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11495-:d:659167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.