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Vehicular PM Emissions and Urban Public Health Sustainability: A Probabilistic Analysis for Dhaka City

Author

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  • Asif Iqbal

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, SA 5095 Adelaide, Australia)

  • Shirina Afroze

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, SA 5095 Adelaide, Australia)

  • Md. Mizanur Rahman

    (UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, SA 5095 Adelaide, Australia)

Abstract

Particulate Matter (PM) pollution is generally considered as a prime indicator of urban air quality and is linked to human health hazards. As vehicles are a vital component of an urban setting, the risks of particulate pollution need to be assessed. An emission modelling is essential for that, and thus stochastic modelling approach involving Monte Carlo simulation technique was applied, aiming to reduce the uncertainty in emission modelling. The risks scenarios for the emissions were generated for 2019 (present state) and 2024 (future), integrating the probability of emissions and the associated AQI (Air Quality Index). Despite the vehicles being a minor source of PM in Dhaka (compared to the contribution from other sources), about one-third of the city is found under high risk due to the exhaust particulate pollution; having the potentiality to cover more than 60% of the city in the coming years, affecting the urban public health sustainability. However, the extent of implementation of planning and management strategies can revert the scenarios for the city, which can plausibly reduce the risk from 80% to 50%, or even to a no-risk state.

Suggested Citation

  • Asif Iqbal & Shirina Afroze & Md. Mizanur Rahman, 2020. "Vehicular PM Emissions and Urban Public Health Sustainability: A Probabilistic Analysis for Dhaka City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6284-:d:394498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goldman, Todd & Gorham, Roger, 2006. "Sustainable urban transport: Four innovative directions," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 261-273.
    2. Asif Iqbal & Shirina Afroze & Md. Mizanur Rahman, 2019. "Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment of Vehicular Emissions as an Urban Health Indicator in Dhaka City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Raul O’ Ryan & Carlos Benavides & Manuel Díaz & Juan Pablo San Martín & Javier Mallea, 2019. "Using probabilistic analysis to improve greenhouse gas baseline forecasts in developing country contexts: the case of Chile," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Arif Hossen & Israt Jahan Ruva & Md. Mehedi Hassan Masum & Prabal Barua, 2022. "Status Of Air Quality And Noise Level With Associated Health Risk Vicinity To Shipbreaking Yards Of Bangladesh," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 83-93, September.
    2. Maksymilian Mądziel, 2023. "Vehicle Emission Models and Traffic Simulators: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Barouch Giechaskiel, 2020. "Gaseous and Particulate Emissions of a Euro 4 Motorcycle and Effect of Driving Style and Open or Closed Sampling Configuration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-12, November.
    4. Piotr Bielaczyc & Wojciech Honkisz & Joseph Woodburn & Andrzej Szczotka & Fabrizio Forloni & Dominique Lesueur & Barouch Giechaskiel, 2021. "Inter-Comparison of Particle and Gaseous Pollutant Emissions of a Euro 4 Motorcycle at Two Laboratories," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, December.

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