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Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain

Author

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  • Qi Hu

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Xueqing Ma

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Huayun He

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Feifei Pan

    (Department of Geography, University of North Texas, Denton, TX 76203, USA)

  • Qijin He

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Binxiang Huang

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

  • Xuebiao Pan

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China)

Abstract

Global warming and dimming/brightening have significant implications for crop systems and exhibit regional variations. It is important to clarify the changes in regional thermal and solar radiation resources and estimate the impacts on potential crop production spatially and temporally. Based on daily observation data during 1961–2015 in the North China Plain (NCP), the impacts of climate change associated with climate warming and global dimming/brightening on potential light–temperature productivity ( PTP ) of summer maize were assessed in this study. Results show that the NCP experienced a continuous warming and dimming trend in maize growing season during the past 55 years, and both ATT10 and solar radiation had an abrupt change in the mid-1990s. The period of 2000–2015 was warmer and dimmer than any other previous decade. Assuming the maize growing season remains unchanged, climate warming would increase PTP of summer maize by 4.6% over the period of 1961–2015, which mainly occurred in the start grain filling–maturity stage. On the other hand, as negative contribution value of solar radiation to the PTP was found in each stage, dimming would offset the increase of PTP due to warming climate, and lead to a 15.6% reduction in PTP in the past 55 years. This study reveals that the changes in thermal and solar radiation have reduced the PTP of summer maize in the NCP. However, the actual maize yield could benefit more from climate warming because solar radiation is not a limiting factor for the current low production level.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi Hu & Xueqing Ma & Huayun He & Feifei Pan & Qijin He & Binxiang Huang & Xuebiao Pan, 2019. "Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:2588-:d:228436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Xiaolong & Chen, Yuanquan & Sui, Peng & Gao, Wangsheng & Qin, Feng & Zhang, Jiansheng & Wu, Xia, 2014. "Emergy analysis of grain production systems on large-scale farms in the North China Plain based on LCA," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 66-78.
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    3. Sun, Hongyong & Shen, Yanjun & Yu, Qiang & Flerchinger, Gerald N. & Zhang, Yongqiang & Liu, Changming & Zhang, Xiying, 2010. "Effect of precipitation change on water balance and WUE of the winter wheat-summer maize rotation in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1139-1145, August.
    4. Qingfeng Meng & Peng Hou & David Lobell & Hongfei Wang & Zhenling Cui & Fusuo Zhang & Xinping Chen, 2014. "The benefits of recent warming for maize production in high latitude China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 341-349, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dongrui Han & Hongyan Cai & Xiaohuan Yang & Xinliang Xu, 2020. "Multi-Source Data Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Winter Wheat Yield in China from 2000 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Xiaoxia Guo & Yunshan Yang & Huifang Liu & Guangzhou Liu & Wanmao Liu & Yonghong Wang & Rulang Zhao & Bo Ming & Ruizhi Xie & Keru Wang & Shaokun Li & Peng Hou, 2022. "Effects of Solar Radiation on Dry Matter Distribution and Root Morphology of High Yielding Maize Cultivars," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.

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