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Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands

Author

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  • Maartje Bodde

    (Arcadis Netherlands, Beaulieustraat 22, 6814 DV Arnhem, The Netherlands)

  • Karin Van der Wel

    (Arcadis Netherlands, Beaulieustraat 22, 6814 DV Arnhem, The Netherlands)

  • Peter Driessen

    (Environmental Governance Group, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Arjan Wardekker

    (Environmental Governance Group, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Hens Runhaar

    (Environmental Governance Group, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is a widely applied policy tool that aims to aid decision-makers in making informed, higher-quality decisions that minimize negative environmental impacts. However, different types of uncertainties complicate the ex ante assessment of environmental impacts. Literature suggests uncertainties are often not well addressed, resulting in inaccurate and even unreliable SEAs. At the same time, SEA literature offers limited guidance in how to systematically identify and deal with uncertainties. Therefore, in this paper, we present an analytical framework for characterizing and classifying different forms of uncertainty in SEA, and for identifying strategies for dealing with these uncertainties. The framework is based on literature on uncertainties in other subdomains of the environmental sciences. The framework is applied to five case studies of SEAs for spatial planning in The Netherlands in order to illustrate and critically reflect on our framework, and to bridge the gap between theory and practice. Based on these case studies we concluded the following: (1) The framework is useful for identifying uncertainties in SEA in a systematic way; (2) There is a discrepancy between how uncertainties are dealt with in theory and in practice; (3) In practice, uncertainties seem to be dealt with in a rather implicit way. The framework may help dealing with uncertainties more systematically and more proactively; (4) The most successful way of coping with uncertainties seems to be the application of multiple strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maartje Bodde & Karin Van der Wel & Peter Driessen & Arjan Wardekker & Hens Runhaar, 2018. "Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2463-:d:157921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juliette Lees & Jochen A.G. Jaeger & Jill A.E. Gunn & Bram F. Noble, 2016. "Analysis of uncertainty consideration in environmental assessment: an empirical study of Canadian EA practice," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(11), pages 2024-2044, November.
    2. Wil Thissen & Jan Kwakkel & Marjolein Mens & Jeroen Sluijs & Sara Stemberger & Arjan Wardekker & Diana Wildschut, 2017. "Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(2), pages 703-725, January.
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    5. Sigel, Katja & Klauer, Bernd & Pahl-Wostl, Claudia, 2010. "Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU water framework directive," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 502-510, January.
    6. Sierra C. Woodruff, 2016. "Planning for an unknowable future: uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 445-459, December.
    7. Ascough, J.C. & Maier, H.R. & Ravalico, J.K. & Strudley, M.W., 2008. "Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 383-399.
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