IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i4p926-d137621.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

House Prices, Mortgage Rate, and Policy: Megadata Analysis in Taipei

Author

Listed:
  • Chien-Ming Yu

    (Department of International Business Studies, National Chi-Nan University, No.470 Daxue Rd., Puli Township, Nantou County 54561, Taiwan)

  • Pei-Fen Chen

    (Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, National Sun Yat-Sen University, No.70, Lianhai Rd., Gushan Dist., Kaohsiung City 80424, Taiwan)

Abstract

There are intensive concerns about the causes of rising housing prices in Taipei. The aims of this study are twofold. The first addresses the issue of whether the low-interest-rate policy is adversely driving housing prices in the metropolitan area of Taipei. The second is to investigate if two important housing policies, luxury tax and actual price registration, help to depress the rising residential house prices. With the mega tick data of Taipei city for more than 80,000 residential house transaction records, we examined the factors influencing the actual house prices spanning the period from June 2008 through May 2014. We applied the least squares regression and the quantile regression in the model estimations for housing valuation. In addition, the megadata set is organized in time series and cross-section structures for five subdistricts and the whole Taipei city as well. The empirical results show that low mortgage rates have been the most significant factor for soaring housing prices in Taipei for the past decade. We estimate that a 1% increase in mortgage rates reduces housing prices from 5% to 17%. The actual price registration policy contributes to the decrease in housing prices by 4% to 29%. Housing policy implications are made based on our empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chien-Ming Yu & Pei-Fen Chen, 2018. "House Prices, Mortgage Rate, and Policy: Megadata Analysis in Taipei," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:926-:d:137621
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/4/926/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/4/926/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric J. Levin & Gwilym B. J. Pryce, 2007. "A Statistical Explanation for Extreme Bids in the House Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(12), pages 2339-2355, November.
    2. Reichert, Alan K, 1990. "The Impact of Interest Rates, Income, and Employment upon Regional Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 373-391, December.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ms. Longmei Zhang & Ms. Edda Zoli, 2014. "Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/022, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Koenker, Roger & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1982. "Robust Tests for Heteroscedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 43-61, January.
    6. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    7. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    8. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "Inflation, the Stock Market, and Owner-Occupied Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 429-434, May.
    10. Vincenzo Del Giudice & Pierfrancesco De Paola & Benedetto Manganelli & Fabiana Forte, 2017. "The Monetary Valuation of Environmental Externalities through the Analysis of Real Estate Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Vincenzo Del Giudice & Benedetto Manganelli & Pierfrancesco De Paola, 2017. "Hedonic Analysis of Housing Sales Prices with Semiparametric Methods," International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems (IJAEIS), IGI Global, vol. 8(2), pages 65-77, April.
    12. Vincenzo Del Giudice & Pierfrancesco De Paola & Fabiana Forte & Benedetto Manganelli, 2017. "Real Estate Appraisals with Bayesian Approach and Markov Chain Hybrid Monte Carlo Method: An Application to a Central Urban Area of Naples," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Adil Rauf & Olaf Weber, 2022. "Housing Sustainability: The Effects of Speculation and Property Taxes on House Prices within and beyond the Jurisdiction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Doo Won Bang & HyuckShin Kwon, 2022. "Policy Impact Analysis of Housing Policies Using Housing Cycles," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabiana Forte & Valentina Antoniucci & Pierfrancesco De Paola, 2018. "Immigration and the Housing Market: The Case of Castel Volturno, in Campania Region, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Clément Bellet, 2017. "Essays on Inequality, Social Preferences and Consumer Behavior," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/vbu6kd1s68o, Sciences Po.
    3. Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Cano-Guervos, Rafael, 2020. "Does my house have a premium or discount in relation to my neighbors? A regression-kriging approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Neil Bhutta & Daniel R. Ringo, 2017. "The Effect of Interest Rates on Home Buying : Evidence from a Discontinuity in Mortgage Insurance Premiums," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Yongsheng Jiang & Dong Zhao & Andrew Sanderford & Jing Du, 2018. "Effects of Bank Lending on Urban Housing Prices for Sustainable Development: A Panel Analysis of Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Jean-Paul Pollin, 2010. "Commentaire : Articuler les explications pour comprendre la bulle immobilière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 173-179.
    7. John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2013. "Through the Crisis," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 27(2), pages 124-143, May.
    8. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    9. Łukasz Goczek & Karol Partyka, 2017. "Polityka pieniężna i ceny nieruchomości w krajach OECD w modelu losowych współczynników," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 47, pages 101-112.
    10. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    11. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    12. Gregory Bauer, 2014. "International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums," Staff Working Papers 14-54, Bank of Canada.
    13. Mahdieh Yazdani & Maziar Raissi, 2023. "Real Estate Property Valuation using Self-Supervised Vision Transformers," Papers 2302.00117, arXiv.org.
    14. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    15. Daikun Wang & Victor Jing Li & Huayi Yu, 2020. "Mass Appraisal Modeling of Real Estate in Urban Centers by Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression: A Case Study of Beijing’s Core Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-18, May.
    16. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2002. "Household Expenditure Patterns for Housing Attributes: A Linear Expenditure System with Hedonic Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-93, March.
    17. Ronan Lyons, 2012. "Search costs, sorting and “property ladder†effects: Evidence from the valuation of amenities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p511, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Monique DANTAS & Frédéric GASCHET & Guillaume POUYANNE, 2010. "Regulatory zoning and coastal housing prices: a bayesian hedonic approach (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2010-12, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    19. Olaru, Doina & Mulley, Corinne & Smith, Brett & Ma, Liang, 2017. "Policy-led selection of the most appropriate empirical model to estimate hedonic prices in the residential market," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 213-228.
    20. Pascal Towbin & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2015. "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom," IMF Working Papers 2015/182, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:926-:d:137621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.