IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v11y2023i19p4151-d1252677.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Selecting and Weighting Mechanisms in Stock Portfolio Design Based on Clustering Algorithm and Price Movement Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Titi Purwandari

    (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Riaman

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Yuyun Hidayat

    (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Sukono

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Riza Andrian Ibrahim

    (Doctoral Program of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Rizki Apriva Hidayana

    (Magister Program of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

Abstract

The fundamental stages in designing a stock portfolio are each stock’s selection and capital weighting. Selection and weighting must be conducted through diversification and price movement analysis to maximize profits and minimize losses. The problem is how the technical implementations of both are carried out. Based on this problem, this study aims to design these selection and weighting mechanisms. Stock selection is based on clusters and price movement trends. The optimal stock clusters are formed using the K-Means algorithm, and price movement analyses are carried out using the moving average indicator. The selected stocks are those whose prices have increasing trends with the most significant Sharpe ratio in each cluster. Then, the capital weighting for each preferred stock is carried out using the mean-variance model with transaction cost and income tax. After designing the mechanism, it is applied to Indonesia’s 80 index stock data. In addition, a comparison is conducted between the estimated portfolio return and the actual one day ahead. Finally, the sensitivity of investors’ courage in taking risks to their profits and losses is also analyzed. This research is expected to assist investors in diversification and price movement analysis of the stocks in the portfolios they form.

Suggested Citation

  • Titi Purwandari & Riaman & Yuyun Hidayat & Sukono & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Rizki Apriva Hidayana, 2023. "Selecting and Weighting Mechanisms in Stock Portfolio Design Based on Clustering Algorithm and Price Movement Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-22, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:19:p:4151-:d:1252677
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4151/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4151/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinho Lee & Raehyun Kim & Yookyung Koh & Jaewoo Kang, 2019. "Global Stock Market Prediction Based on Stock Chart Images Using Deep Q-Network," Papers 1902.10948, arXiv.org.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 151-151.
    3. Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu & Rose Irnawaty Ibrahim, 2023. "How to Price Catastrophe Bonds for Sustainable Earthquake Funding? A Systematic Review of the Pricing Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu, 2022. "Multiple-Trigger Catastrophe Bond Pricing Model and Its Simulation Using Numerical Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Leonid Mylnikov & Martin Kuetz, 2017. "The Risk Assessment Method in Prognostic Models of Production Systems Management with Account of the Time Factor," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3A), pages 291-310.
    6. Laurent El Ghaoui & Maksim Oks & Francois Oustry, 2003. "Worst-Case Value-At-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 543-556, August.
    7. Martin R. Young, 1998. "A Minimax Portfolio Selection Rule with Linear Programming Solution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(5), pages 673-683, May.
    8. Tomas Björk & Agatha Murgoci & Xun Yu Zhou, 2014. "Mean–Variance Portfolio Optimization With State-Dependent Risk Aversion," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Chan, Kalok & Hameed, Allaudeen, 2006. "Stock price synchronicity and analyst coverage in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 115-147, April.
    10. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    11. Varga-Haszonits, I. & Kondor, I., 2007. "Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(1), pages 307-318.
    12. Robert Tibshirani & Guenther Walther & Trevor Hastie, 2001. "Estimating the number of clusters in a data set via the gap statistic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 411-423.
    13. Wulan Anggraeni & Sudradjat Supian & Sukono & Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim, 2023. "Single Earthquake Bond Pricing Framework with Double Trigger Parameters Based on Multi Regional Seismic Information," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-44, January.
    14. Wulan Anggraeni & Sudradjat Supian & Sukono & Nurfadhlina Binti Abdul Halim, 2022. "Earthquake Catastrophe Bond Pricing Using Extreme Value Theory: A Mini-Review Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-22, November.
    15. Sharpe, William F., 1971. "A Linear Programming Approximation for the General Portfolio Analysis Problem," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1263-1275, December.
    16. Sukono & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Hafizan Juahir & Igif Gimin Prihanto & Nurfadhlina Binti Abdul Halim, 2022. "Modeling Multiple-Event Catastrophe Bond Prices Involving the Trigger Event Correlation, Interest, and Inflation Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2009. "Flexible shrinkage in portfolio selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 317-328, February.
    18. Tola, Vincenzo & Lillo, Fabrizio & Gallegati, Mauro & Mantegna, Rosario N., 2008. "Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 235-258, January.
    19. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    20. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    21. Li, Xiaoyue & Uysal, A. Sinem & Mulvey, John M., 2022. "Multi-period portfolio optimization using model predictive control with mean-variance and risk parity frameworks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(3), pages 1158-1176.
    22. Fleischhacker, Andreas & Lettner, Georg & Schwabeneder, Daniel & Auer, Hans, 2019. "Portfolio optimization of energy communities to meet reductions in costs and emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1092-1105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuyun Hidayat & Titi Purwandari & Sukono & Igif Gimin Prihanto & Rizki Apriva Hidayana & Riza Andrian Ibrahim, 2023. "Mean-Value-at-Risk Portfolio Optimization Based on Risk Tolerance Preferences and Asymmetric Volatility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-26, November.
    2. Sukono & Dedi Rosadi & Di Asih I Maruddani & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Muhamad Deni Johansyah, 2024. "Mechanisms of Stock Selection and Its Capital Weighing in the Portfolio Design Based on the MACD-K-Means-Mean-VaR Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sukono & Dedi Rosadi & Di Asih I Maruddani & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Muhamad Deni Johansyah, 2024. "Mechanisms of Stock Selection and Its Capital Weighing in the Portfolio Design Based on the MACD-K-Means-Mean-VaR Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu & Riaman & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Muhamad Deni Johansyah & Rizki Apriva Hidayana, 2023. "A Regional Catastrophe Bond Pricing Model and Its Application in Indonesia’s Provinces," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Sukono & Herlina Napitupulu & Rose Irnawaty Ibrahim, 2023. "How to Price Catastrophe Bonds for Sustainable Earthquake Funding? A Systematic Review of the Pricing Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Bao, Te & Diks, Cees & Li, Hao, 2018. "A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 611-621.
    5. Wulan Anggraeni & Sudradjat Supian & Sukono & Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim, 2023. "Catastrophe Bond Diversification Strategy Using Probabilistic–Possibilistic Bijective Transformation and Credibility Measures in Fuzzy Environment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-30, August.
    6. Luis Lorenzo & Javier Arroyo, 2023. "Online risk-based portfolio allocation on subsets of crypto assets applying a prototype-based clustering algorithm," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-40, December.
    7. Arenas Parra, M. & Bilbao Terol, A. & Rodriguez Uria, M. V., 2001. "A fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 287-297, January.
    8. Stephen Boyd & Kasper Johansson & Ronald Kahn & Philipp Schiele & Thomas Schmelzer, 2024. "Markowitz Portfolio Construction at Seventy," Papers 2401.05080, arXiv.org.
    9. Eom, Cheoljun & Park, Jong Won, 2018. "A new method for better portfolio investment: A case of the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 213-231.
    10. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Aristeidis Samitas, 2022. "An Application of Portfolio Mean-Variance and Semi-Variance Optimization Techniques: A Case of Fiji," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-25, April.
    11. Bajeux-Besnainou, Isabelle & Bandara, Wachindra & Bura, Efstathia, 2012. "A Krylov subspace approach to large portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1688-1699.
    12. Sergio Ortobelli & Noureddine Kouaissah & Tomáš Tichý, 2017. "On the impact of conditional expectation estimators in portfolio theory," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 535-557, October.
    13. Polak, George G. & Rogers, David F. & Sweeney, Dennis J., 2010. "Risk management strategies via minimax portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 409-419, November.
    14. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gautam Mitra & Frank Ellison & Alan Scowcroft, 2007. "Quadratic programming for portfolio planning: Insights into algorithmic and computational issues," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(3), pages 200-214, September.
    16. Christian Walter, 2005. "La gestion indicielle et la théorie des moyennes," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 79(2), pages 113-136.
    17. Alina Lucia Trifan, 2009. "Testing Capital Asset Pricing Model For Romanian Capital Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 1-43.
    18. Richard Chung & Scott Fung & James Shilling & Tammie Simmons-Mosley, 2011. "What Determines Stock Price Synchronicity in REITs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 73-98, July.
    19. Malavasi, Matteo & Ortobelli Lozza, Sergio & Trück, Stefan, 2021. "Second order of stochastic dominance efficiency vs mean variance efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1192-1206.
    20. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-31, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Aug 2013.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:19:p:4151-:d:1252677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.